2 key metrics point to further downside for the overall crypto market

The total crypto market cap is showing a slight upward trend over the past 3 months and the $1.75 trillion support was last tested on April 27, when Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $38,000 and Ether (ETH ) bounced off $2,800 on April 27.

Total crypto market cap, billion USD. Source: TradingView

The total crypto market cap saw a 3.5% drop over the past 7 days, and notable losers included a 18.8% loss of XRP, a 10.2% loss of Cardano (ADA) and a drop of 9, 7% off the price of Polkadot (DOT).

Analyzing a broader range of altcoins gives a more balanced picture, which includes 25% gains from some gaming and Metaverse projects over the same period.

Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: nomics

Apecoin (APE) is up 44% on Otherside’s upcoming Metaverse land auction scheduled for April 30. The Otherside is being developed by Yuga Labs, Animoca Brands and the NFT team at Bored Ape Yacht Club and NFT investors have high expectations for the project.

Move-to-earn lifestyle app STEPN (GMT)’s native tokens surged 28% after US-based crypto exchange Coinbase announced plans to list the token.

Nexo gained 15% after crypto and derivatives exchange Binance announced its listing on April 29, and Nexo also announced plans to issue a credit card that accepts crypto as collateral rather than selling holders’ assets.

Zilliqa (ZIL) price has been adjusted after the token pumped 380% in late March, and this follows the March 25 announcement of the project of a Metaverse service that will leverage Nvidia technology.

Meanwhile, data from DappRadar shows that play-to-earn unicorn Axie Infinity (AXS) has fallen to its lowest level in 9 months after the number of users and transactions fell by 15% over the past 30 years.

Tether premium shows lack of demand from buyers

The OKX Tether (USDT) markup measures retail demand in China and measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trading and the US dollar.

Excessive buying demand sets the indicator above the fair value at 100%. On the other hand, Tether’s market supply is flooded during declining markets, resulting in a discount of 4% or more.

Tether (USDT) peer to peer vs USD/CNY. Source: OKX

OKX Tether premium hit its highest level in 2022 at 2% on April 28. The move coincided with Bitcoin breaking above $40,000, but its price bounced back later that day. Currently, the Tether premium is at 0%, signaling neutral sentiment among retailers.

The futures markets show mixed sentiment

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is typically calculated every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid imbalances in exchange rate risk.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) are demanding more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when short sellers (sellers) need additional leverage, making the funding rate negative.

Cumulative 7-day refinancing rate for perpetual futures on April 29th. Source: Coinglass

As shown above, the 7-day cumulative funding rate for bitcoin and ether is slightly positive. The data suggests slightly higher demand from longs (buyers), but nothing to force traders to close their positions. Luna’s positive weekly rate of 0.15%, for example, equates to 0.6% per month, which shouldn’t worry most futures traders.

The absence of Tether premium in Asia and flat perpetual premiums signal a lack of demand from retailers as the total crypto market cap struggles to maintain $1.75 trillion support.

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