2021 MLB playoffs – How the St. Louis Cardinals went from 1.3% postseason odds to playing the defending champs tonight

Seventeen could be the defining variety of the St. Louis Cardinals‘ season. As in what number of video games in a row they gained throughout a record-setting September stretch.

However there’s one other quantity that tells an much more dramatic story of their 12 months: 1.3.

In keeping with FanGraphs, the Cardinals’ playoff odds hit a season-low 1.3% on Aug. 8. Whilst late as Sept. 9, the day earlier than their profitable streak started, these odds sat at simply 5%.

However seeing their possibilities of enjoying in October dip so low could be a part of why St. Louis is making ready for an unbelievable NL Wild Card Sport matchup Wednesday night time in Los Angeles with the defending champion Dodgers slightly than making offseason plans proper now.

“It was bizarre as a result of we might be one recreation again or two video games again and we might win and the Reds would lose and our postseason odds would go down,” longtime Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright mentioned. “Nobody might perceive that, so it form of drove us just a little bit, so due to all of the individuals at FanGraphs that gave us zero respect so we might go on the market with a chip on our shoulders.”

How they did it

There’s a clear connection between St. Louis’ accidents and a decline within the standings.

“The thriller shouldn’t be one for me,” Cardinals supervisor Mike Shildt mentioned just lately. “We performed actually good the primary two months. We had a fairly good nucleus of our beginning pitching. Then we misplaced 4 of our starters in a brief time period.

“Getting the rotation to stabilize was key.”

On Might 31, the final day ace Jack Flaherty would take the mound for basically three and a half months as a consequence of an indirect damage, the Cardinals had been 30-24 and simply two video games out of an NL wild-card spot.

From that day till the commerce deadline on July 30, St. Louis went 22-27, dropping seven video games again within the race for the second wild-card spot with two groups to beat.

Accidents to Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Kwang Hyun Kim and Carlos Martinez halted the Cardinals of their tracks.

The Cardinals managed to maintain themselves inside hanging distance whereas ready to get wholesome, permitting them to finally make the most of the accidents and poor play that derailed the season of a San Diego Padres group that appeared destined for the NL Wild Card Sport for a lot of the 12 months.

“We had been ready for that day that offense, protection and pitching all clicked collectively,” reliever Andrew Miller mentioned final month. “It arrived.”

It got here collectively within the type of a historic 17-game September win streak, tied for fourth longest within the NL within the trendy period (since 1900).

Win No. 17, the ultimate one of many streak, appropriately got here the day they clinched a playoff berth, the group’s thirty first time reaching the postseason.

However there was a key resolution the Cardinals needed to make lengthy earlier than their season might reverse itself in September.

It turned out to be a straightforward one.

The commerce deadline

For many groups on the playoff bubble, it is an annual inner debate. Ought to they add on the July commerce deadline, and go for it, or ought to they subtract some expiring contracts and retool for the long run?

The Cardinals aren’t most groups.

“You all the time need September to rely,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak advised “If you look over the previous 40 years with this group, we have been in a position to have that.”

This is the underside line: St. Louis, hardly ever, if ever, subtracts from its roster in these moments. However Mozeliak knew the percentages in addition to anybody, so he took a reasoned strategy on July 30 slightly than pushing his chips all-in.

As a substitute, the Cardinals stuffed their pitching holes with veterans who weren’t precisely lighting up the stat sheet. Jon Lester came to visit from the Washington Nationals and J.A. Happ from the Minnesota Twins. They introduced their 5.02 and 6.77 ERA’s with them.

In the meantime, smaller bullpen additions of T.J. McFarland and Luis Garcia stabilized a beforehand very shaky group.

“After we did these offers, we knew they weren’t going to be publicly fashionable so I did not wish to go in entrance of the media and arise and do the wave,” Mozeliak mentioned with a smile. “That will have been disingenuous. However what’s real is we did these offers with a objective. The aim was to help with our rotation as a result of we had been hemorrhaging at instances.”

The plan labored. Each Lester and Happ have been higher with the Cardinals than their previous groups whereas the bullpen went from a whopping 13.5% stroll fee earlier than July 30 to a 7.9% fee since.

“It is actually simply been the contagious factor of pitching and hitting nicely and the subsequent man desirous to as nicely,” Lester defined. “The second wild card helps. It offers you that chance of getting in. With out that second wild card, we’re accomplished.”

And with out the deadline selections — as minor as they appeared on the time — the Cardinals by no means get again within the race.

“Did we overwhelm on the commerce deadline? No. However did it really feel like it might assist us? Sure,” Mozeliak mentioned.

And when all of it got here collectively, the Cardinals not solely made it to the postseason, they compiled probably the greatest Septembers in league historical past.

“That is why I got here right here,” third baseman Nolan Arenado mentioned. “I do know they all the time have cared about profitable. This group is aware of how you can win and that is what we’re making an attempt to do.”


The streak did not start with a speech or perhaps a second any participant might recall as being all that memorable. Crew leaders, together with Wainwright, Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter, preached “keep the course,” an typically used phrase in skilled sports activities.

“There was no spark,” Miller mentioned. “It was simply good to see the arrogance we have had all 12 months come to fruition.”

Mozeliak added: “What’s predictable is the kind of play. Pre-streak, we had been enjoying significantly better baseball.”

Within the days earlier than it started, the Cardinals truly misplaced 4 in a row, together with the primary two of a four-game sequence to the Dodgers at dwelling.

“A number of us had been speaking about, whereas we had been enjoying the Dodgers, groups forward of us had been enjoying a softer schedule, so we knew the Dodgers had been a key sequence,” Wainwright mentioned. “We misplaced these first two video games however profitable these final two, it gave us just a little little bit of mojo going into the subsequent sequence.”

St. Louis beat Los Angeles 5-4 on Sept. 8. The following day produced one other one-run victory over the defending champions. Then Friday, Sept. 10 can be the final time the Cardinals would lose for the subsequent 19 days, taking them from 3½ video games out of the second wild card to 6½ video games up.

Identical to that, the race was over.

“You see a bunch of fellows who’ve found out their roles and are clicking on the similar time,” Wainwright mentioned in the midst of the streak. “The timing of it’s actually vital additionally.”

They blew out groups, they got here from behind they usually gained one-run affairs, all of the whereas having a blast. Lester thought he remembered at most profitable 10 in a row at one level in his profession, whereas Wainwright recalled an eight-game streak again in 2006.

However nothing like this.

Arenado is in baseball heaven in his new dwelling after spending his ultimate two seasons in Colorado, a lot nearer to the NL West basement than a playoff race.

“The vitality is nice,” Arenado mentioned earlier than win No. 14. “It is enjoyable to come back to the clubhouse. Lots of people are on the primary bus now. There is a new vitality. Generally within the season, it is like, ‘alright, should go to the ballpark.’ Now it is like, ‘hey man, I am unable to wait to get to the sphere.’

“I get anxious at 10:30 within the morning.”

And with the profitable got here some new superstitions within the Cardinals clubhouse.

“Now we have a pair guys in there with some holy underwear that should be changed,” Wainwright joked throughout the streak. “One man, particularly, there’s stuff hanging out in all places however he cannot change them.”

The streak vaulted the Cardinals into the postseason and confirmed what Mozeliak and Shildt spoke about privately.

“Possibly we’re each everlasting optimists,” Mozeliak mentioned. “We believed on this membership.”

Generally, that is all it takes.

And just a little pitching. And three, 30 home-run hitters named Paul Goldschmidt, Arenado and Tyler O’Neill.

The streak finally ended, however the Cardinals season continues for at the very least another night time. Beating the defending world champions might catapult them to heights unthinkable once they had been lengthy pictures for the playoffs only a month in the past.

“These streaks are so uncommon,” Arenado mentioned. “It has been enjoyable however we will not cease now.” | 2021 MLB playoffs – How the St. Louis Cardinals went from 1.3% postseason odds to enjoying the defending champs tonight


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