A runaway Chinese missile will fall back to earth TODAY, experts say — right where it could land

A runaway Chinese rocket is set to fall back to Earth today as scientists reveal where it is likely to fall.

Aerospace Corporation experts have charted the trajectory of what was left of the massive rocket as it made its uncontrolled re-entry.

Experts have planned where the Chinese rocket is likely to return to Earth


Experts have planned where the Chinese rocket is likely to return to EarthPhoto credit: The Aerospace Corporation
A Long March-5B Y3 rocket carrying China's Wentian Space Station Laboratory Module after liftoff from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site on July 24, 2022


A Long March-5B Y3 rocket carrying China’s Wentian Space Station Laboratory Module after liftoff from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site on July 24, 2022Credit: Alamy

Explaining the graphic released by the company, it said possible re-entry points could be anywhere along the blue or yellow lines.

On a possible trajectory, seen on the yellow line, the missile will first appear over the Indian Ocean before flying south under South Africa and across the southern Atlantic to Brazil and near the city of Sao Paolo, inhabited by more than 12 .3 m.

It will then sweep northwest across South America along the west coast of Mexico and the US, passing San Diego with a population of about 1.4 million people and Los Angeles, home to nearly 4 million people.

It is then expected to turn into the Pacific Ocean.

On the other, blue line, the rocket could sweep across the Far East, past Japan, home to nearly 126 million people, before flying south and passing countries like the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia before crossing the Indian Ocean and into South Africa drives south and then lands in the southern Atlantic.

Although an update on Twitter said it was too early to “determine one.” meaningful rubble impression.”

The last available re-entry from tracking data projects will be around 6.15pm UK time, more or less an hour, according to Aerospace Corp., a government-funded non-profit research center near Los Angeles.

The Beijing government said earlier this week it poses little risk to anyone on the ground.

The Long March 5B rocket launched Sunday to deliver a laboratory module for China’s new orbiting space station, which is under construction.

It was the third flight of China’s most powerful rocket since it was first launched in 2020.

As with the first two flights, the rocket’s entire main core stage – which is 100 feet (30 meters) long and weighs 22 tons (about 48,500 pounds) – has already reached low orbit.

According to American experts, once atmospheric friction pulls it down, it is expected to tumble back toward Earth.

Eventually the rocket body will disintegrate as it falls through the atmosphere.

But it’s large enough that numerous boulders are likely to survive fiery re-entry into rain debris in an area about 2,000 km (1,240 miles) long and about 70 km (44 miles) wide, independent US analysts said on Wednesday.

The overall risk to people and property on the ground is fairly low, aerospace analyst Ted Muelhaupt told reporters in a news conference.

That’s because 75 percent of the Earth’s surface in the potential path of debris is water, desert, or jungle.

Nevertheless, there is a possibility that parts of the rocket will fall over a populated area.

This is known to have happened in May 2020, when fragments of another Chinese Long March 5B landed in Ivory Coast, damaging several buildings. No injuries were reported, said Muelhaupt.

In contrast, he said, the United States and most other space nations generally put in the extra expense of designing their rockets to avoid large, uncontrolled re-entry.

This imperative has largely been met since much of NASA’s Skylab space station fell from orbit and landed in Australia in 1979.

Overall, the odds of someone being injured or killed by falling chunks of rockets this weekend range from one in 1,000 to one in 230.

That’s well above the internationally recognized risk threshold of 1 in 10,000, he told reporters.

But the risk for a single person is far less, on the order of six chances in 10 trillion. In comparison, the probability of being struck by lightning is about 80,000 times higher.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the likelihood of debris harming aviation or people and property on the ground is very slim. He said most of the rocket’s components would be destroyed on re-entry.

Last year, Nasa and others accused China of being opaque after the government in Beijing remained silent about the estimated debris trajectory or re-entry window of their final Long March rocket flight in May 2021.

Debris from this flight eventually landed harmlessly in the Indian Ocean.

A few hours after Zhao spoke on Wednesday, the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) announced the approximate location of its latest rocket in a rare public statement.

As of 4 p.m. (0800 GMT), the agency said the rocket is orbiting the globe in an elliptical orbit that is 163.2 miles (263.2 km) high at its farthest point and 116.6 miles (176.6 km) high at its closest point.

No estimated reentry details were released by the CMSA on Wednesday.

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https://www.thesun.ie/tech/9179680/where-chinese-rocket-fall-earth-today-trajectory/ A runaway Chinese missile will fall back to earth TODAY, experts say — right where it could land

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