According to the forecaster, Worthing is considered a “key bettor” for the next election


According to a political forecasting website, WORTHING could be a “key leader” in the next election.

Electoral Calculus said the Conservatives would lose five seats to Labor and the Liberal Democrats in Sussex if a general election were held today.

Labor would win Crawley, East Worthing and Shoreham, as well as Hastings and Rye, while the Liberal Democrats are currently on course to win Eastbourne and Lewes from the Tories.

It comes after Worthing Borough Council switched to Labor for the first time in May’s local elections.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said that while Labor is on track to become the largest party in the next election, at this stage the party cannot be sure of winning an overall majority.

He said: “In Sussex, as in many other places across the country, the Conservatives appear to be losing seats to Labor and the Liberal Democrats.

“The most important policy change is that Boris Johnson, who was appointed Conservative leader due to his previous electoral success, is no longer an election asset as he was forced to resign.

“None of his likely successors look like they’ll have the same voting magic that Johnson used to wield.

“But Keir Starmer himself hasn’t created much electoral enthusiasm, so Labor are not yet sure of winning an overall majority, even though they are probably the largest party.”

Should Labor win East Worthing and Shoreham, the party is expected to win around 300 seats.

However, should the Conservatives also lose Worthing West to Labour, currently held by Sir Peter Bottomley, Keir Starmer would be on track to hold 350 seats and win an overall majority in Parliament.

“The City of Worthing is a key frontrunner and could be a place to watch on election night,” said Mr Baxter.

The latest Electoral Calculus forecast puts Labor about four per cent behind the Conservatives in Worthing West, with neighboring MP Tim Loughton having a 64 per cent chance of losing his constituency in East Worthing and Shoreham.

The forecast comes as Health Secretary and Lewes MP Maria Caulfield told The Argus that she believes the Conservatives can “absolutely win a fifth term” in 2024.

She said: “Once we have a new prime minister in office and a more stable period, it will be back to business as usual.”

Electoral Calculus’ forecasting model currently gives Ms Caulfield only a 35 percent chance of retaining her seat in the next election. According to the forecaster, Worthing is considered a “key bettor” for the next election

Fry Electronics Team

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