Bitcoin price predictions abound as traders focus on the next BTC halving cycle

The recent collapse of Terra has been repeatedly singled out as the main cause of crypto asset weakness, but it is far more likely that a combination of factors are behind the start of this current bear market.

At the same time as the market tumbled from the Terra saga, the 2-year mark for the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving was also breached, and this is a metric some analysts are using as an indicator of the end of a bull market to have.

BTC/USD 1 week chart. Source: TradingView

As shown in the chart above, BTC has topped in previous cycles, followed by a price decline that first falls below the 50-day moving average (MA), then a culminating capitulation event that takes the price below the 200-day moving average. MA presses.

Many traders have been disconcerted by the lack of a blow-off top in the recent bull market cycle, as this phenomenon has typically marked the late stage of an exhausted trend.

Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-flow model after BTC failed to reach $100,000 before the end of 2021.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

During previous market cycles, BTC was trading well above the S2F model at this stage of its progress, with model variance being positive. Currently, the model variance shows a value of -0.86 while the price of BTC is well below the S2F line.

This lack of a blow-off top has led some traders to hold onto previous calls for a final price surge where BTC will hit $100,000 before entering an extended bear market, but that remains to be seen.

Perhaps the market will bottom in November?

While some are still hoping for one last hurray before the bear market really kicks in, a more pessimistic view is predicting another 6 months of decline before the market bottoms.

BTC/USD 1 month chart. Source: TradingView

Based on previous cycles, the market bottom came about 13 months after the market top, which would point to a bottom sometime in December of this year if the current trend continues.

This is further confirmed when looking at the time between a market bottom and the next bitcoin halving event.

BTC/USD 1 month chart. Source: TradingView

During previous cycles, each cycle low was reached about 17 to 18 months before the next halving. The next BTC halving is expected to occur on May 5, 2024, which would indicate that the market will bottom in November or December 2022.

Related: Bitcoin is discounted near its “realized” price, but analysts say there is room for deep downside

Traders are still perma bulls despite the current price action

As far as price predictions go, there is far less consensus on the matter due to BTC’s underperformance over the last cycle when most traders were expecting $100,000.

Traders continue to call for BTC to surpass $100,000 in the not-too-distant future, with a handful holding on to the penultimate target of $1 million.

Bitcoin price prediction chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

A general range of possible prices, outlined by LookIntoBitcoins’ price prediction tool, points to a BTC high of $238,298, while the delta top indicator shows a high of $119,886. The terminal price indicator is currently providing a price prediction of $107,801.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.