Bitcoin rally hopes wane as pro traders bearish, retail interest at 12-month lows

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) has been caught in a symmetrical triangle for 56 days and the trend reversal could last until early May, according to price technicians.

Currently, the support level stands at $38,000 while the triangle resistance for the daily close is at $43,600.

Bitcoin mining up, retail rates down

Bitcoin/USD price on FTX. Source: TradingView

The week started with positive success for the Bitcoin network as the Lightning network capacity hit a record high of 3,500 BTC. This solution enables extremely cheap and instant transactions on a secondary layer known as off-chain processing.

After cryptocurrency mining was banned in China in 2021, listed companies in the United States and Canada attracted most of that computing power.

As a result, Bitcoin’s hash has rallied dramatically since the summer. It is currently at all-time highs of over 200 EH/s. According to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index 45% of the global hash rate comes from North America.

Additionally, Whit Gibbs, the founder and CEO of Compass Mining, stated that “public mining companies definitely have an advantage when it comes to holding bitcoin because they have access to the capital markets.” Additionally, there is less selling pressure as miners’ reserves have steadily increased.

Global search for the term “Bitcoin”. Source: Google Trends

Meanwhile, Google searches for “bitcoin” are nearing their lowest level in 12 months. This indicator could partially explain why Bitcoin is 41% below its all-time high of $69,000, i.e. public interest is low. Still, one must analyze how professional traders position themselves, and there is no better benchmark than the derivatives markets.

Related: Crypto Miner Hut 8 Posts Record Earnings as BTC Holdings Soar 100%

Long-to-short data confirms lack of excitement

The top traders’ net long-to-short ratio excludes externalities that may have impacted specific derivative instruments. By analyzing these top local clients’ positions, perpetual contracts and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are bullish or bearish.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so viewers should watch changes rather than absolute numbers.

ExHange’s Top Trader Bitcoin Long-to-Short Ratio. Source: coin jar

Bitcoin may be up 8% since March 13, but professional traders have not increased their bullish bets according to the long-to-short indicator. For example, Huobi’s top trader ratio declined slightly from 1.10 to the current level of 1.06.

Additionally, OKX data shows traders trimming their longs sharply from 1.26 to 1.03. Binance was the only exception as top traders increased their longs from 1.05 to 1.13. Still, there was a slight 0.06 decline across the big three exchanges on average.

Can the triangle break up?

From the perspective of the metrics discussed above, there is little sense that Bitcoin price will turn bullish in the short-term. The data suggests that pro traders have reduced their long positions, as reflected by the base rate and the long-to-short ratio.

Additionally, the broader Google search trend signals that retail interest is not picking up despite high inflation data and global socio-political uncertainties. Right now, the chances of the symmetrical triangle breaking out to the upside seem slim.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.