Bitcoin (BTC) has recouped much of January’s losses and now traders’ focus is shifting to April, which has historically been a strong month. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin only ended April in the red three times, and the worst monthly loss was a 3.46% drop in 2015.
Although history favors the bulls, the Whale Shadows indicator has found that more than 11,000 bitcoin left a wallet sitting dormant for seven to 10 years. According to independent MA analyst Phillip Swift, the movement of similarly sized amounts of dormant accounts has generally resulted in a large top.
In addition to keeping an eye on the crypto markets, traders should also follow the development of the US stock markets for clues as Bitcoin has been closely correlated with the stock markets over the past few weeks.
Could Bulls Clear Bitcoin’s Overhead Hurdle and Pick Altcoins and Extend Strong Recovery from the Lows? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin turned down from the 200-day simple moving average ($48,291) on March 29 and fell to the 20-day exponential moving average ($43,935) today. Today’s candlestick’s long tail suggests buyers are accumulating on dips.
The bulls will make another attempt to push the price above the 200-day SMA. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could surge to $52,000 where the bears could again pose a stiff resistance.
Alternatively, if the price turns down again from the 200-day SMA, it will indicate that the bears have established a strong barrier at this level. The pair could then consolidate between the 20-day EMA and the 200-day SMA for a few days.
A break and close below the 20-day EMA will indicate that the bullish momentum has weakened. This could lead to a drop to the 50-day SMA ($41,461).
Ether (ETH) reversed from the 200-day SMA ($3,488) on March 29, but the shallow correction and sharp recovery suggest strong demand at lower levels.
The rising 20-day EMA ($3,098) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near the overbought zone are suggesting that the bulls are in control.
If buyers propel the price above the 200-day SMA, bullish momentum could increase further and the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the psychological $4,000 level.
Contrary to this assumption, a fresh move down in price from the overhead resistance suggests that the bears are not ready to give way. The bears will then attempt to drag the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($2,860).
Binance Coin (BNB) broke above the overhead resistance at $445 on March 30-31, but the bulls failed to hold the higher levels.
The bears have dragged the price to the 20-day EMA ($413) today, but the strong rebound from this level suggests strong buying by the bulls at lower levels.
If bulls push and sustain the price above $445, the BNB/USDT pair could scale the 200-day SMA ($467) and then plunge to the psychological $500 level.
This bullish view will be invalidated in the short-term if the price turns down from current levels and breaks below the moving averages. The pair could then remain in the $350-$445 range for a few more days.
Solana (SOL) witnessed a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the critical $122 level. The long wick on the March 31st candlestick suggested selling at higher levels, but the bears failed to sustain the price below $122 today.
This suggests that the bulls bought aggressively on the small dip. Buyers have pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $122, which indicates the start of a potential new uptrend.
The SOL/USDT pair could now challenge the 200-day SMA ($150). If the bulls clear this barrier, the next stop could be $163.
On the other hand, if the price fails to sustain above $122, it will suggest that demand is drying up at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA ($103).
Ripple (XRP) formed an inside day candlestick pattern on March 30th, which resolved on March 31st with a strong downside move in favor of the bears. This suggests that the buyers who may have been buying at lower levels have been aggressively closing their positions.
The 20-day EMA ($0.82) is flattening out and the RSI has fallen close to the midpoint, suggesting that the bullish momentum may be weakening. If the price breaks below the 50-day SMA ($0.78), the XRP/USDT pair could slide to the next support at $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, buyers will try to push the pair above $0.86 and re-challenge resistance at $0.91 if the price rises from current levels. A break and close above this level could open the gates for a possible rally to the psychological $1 level.
Cardano (ADA) turned down from the overhead resistance at $1.26, suggesting the bears are vigorously defending the level. The price could now drop to the 20-day EMA ($1.05), which is an important level to watch for.
If the price recovers from the 20-day EMA, the buyers will make another attempt to push the ADA/USDT pair above $1.26. When they succeed, the couple completes an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This setup suggests that the pair may have bottomed.
The pair could then scale the overhead resistance zone between the 200-day SMA ($1.50) and $1.63, where the bears could mount a stiff resistance. This bullish view will be negated in the short-term if the price breaks out and remains below the 50-day SMA ($0.95).
Terra’s LUNA token turned down after hitting a fresh all-time high on March 30, suggesting that the bears are attempting to halt the uptrend. On a small plus, however, the bulls have not allowed the price to drop below $96. This suggests that the bulls are trying to turn this level into support.
The rising 20-day EMA ($95) suggests an upside for buyers, but the negative divergence on the RSI suggests that the bullish momentum could be weakening. If buyers push the price above $111, the uptrend could resume. The LUNA/USDT pair could then rally to $125.
Contrary to this belief, if the price turns down from the current levels or the overhead resistance and falls below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that traders will book profits aggressively. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($80).
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Avalanche (AVAX) broke the overhead resistance at $98 on March 30th and 31st but failed to hold the higher levels. This may have prompted short-term traders to book profits.
Although the bears have pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($87), the long tail on the daily candle suggests strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to propel and sustain the price above the $98-$100 overhead zone.
If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair could gain momentum and climb to $120. Conversely, if the price turns down again from the overhead resistance, it will indicate strong selling at higher levels. That could pull the price towards the moving averages.
The failure to break the $23 resistance may have led to profit booking by the short-term traders in Polkadot (DOT). That pushed the price down to the 20-day EMA ($20) today.
The strong recovery from the 20-day EMA suggests buying the dips. The bulls will now make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $23. If successful, the DOT/USDT pair could start a new uptrend and the price could rally to the 200-day SMA ($29).
Alternatively, if the price turns down and falls below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bullish momentum may have weakened. That could push the price down to $19 and if that level gives way, the next stop could be $16.
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from $0.15 on March 28 and fell to the moving averages. This is a key support for buyers to defend if they want bullish sentiment to remain intact.
If the price recovers from the current levels with strength, the bulls will attempt to push the DOGE/USDT pair above $0.15. If successful, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.17. The slightly rising 20-day EMA ($0.13) and the RSI in positive territory are pointing to a small advantage for buyers.
This bullish view will be invalidated in the short-term if the bears decline and sustain the price below the moving averages. Such a move could open the doors for a possible drop to the critical $0.12-$0.10 support zone.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data provided by HitBTC Exchange.
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