In November 1939, Queen Elizabeth of England (later Queen Mother) gave Lord Halifax, the foreign minister, a copy of Adolf Hitler’s book Mein Kampf, warning him of “apparent sincerity.” by the Führer but jokingly advised him not to read it, “or you might go crazy and that would be a great pity”. In that book, Hitler made his point about the need for Lebensraum (living space) in eastern Europe, which of course included Ukraine.
It’s rare for dictators to state their thoughts so clearly, but when they do it makes sense to listen to what they have to say. Last July, Vladimir Putin wrote his famous 6,885-word essay “On the historical unification of Russians and Ukrainians”, which explains why he believes Ukraine does not deserve a separate fate from Russia. It contains such gems as “We respect the language and traditions of Ukraine. We respect the Ukrainian people’s desire to see their country free, secure and prosperous”, and is quoted approvingly from the Prophet Oleg’s quote about Kyiv: “Let it be your mother. all cities of Russia. “
Today, with Kyiv as the mother of all battlefields, it is advisable to re-read the essay to see what Putin might do next, because the monstrous events since 24 February naturally arise from his I swagger but, to paraphrase the Queen, clearly a sincere look at Russian history.
That essay isn’t just about Ukraine. The Baltic state and Nato member Lithuania are mentioned 17 times, and in a language not entirely different from the one he used for Ukraine.
Writing about the 13th century, Putin countered that “the lands south and west of Russia became largely part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which – most significantly – is recorded in history books as the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. and Russia”. Why should that be “most important” if Putin believes that present-day Lithuania is a separate, legitimate, non-Russian state?
To support his argument, he refers to the Battle of Kulikovo, an event that took place in 1380. His focus on events more than 600 years ago resembles that of Boris Johnson claiming a monopoly over the West. France for the Battle of Poitiers.
Just as he did with Ukraine, the historian Putin tells us that in the early 17th century: “One of the hierarchy of the Unification Church, Joseph Rutsky, communicated to Rome that the people of Moscovia [a predecessor of Tsarist Russia] called Russians from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth their brothers, that their written language was completely identical and that the difference in the vernacular was negligible. ” He then concluded: “Our spiritual unity has also been attacked.”
Should Putin win in Ukraine, he made it clear where he wanted to go next. We need to listen to his threats. Although ethnic Russians make up only 5 percent of Lithuania’s population, they make up 24 percent of Estonia and 25 parts of Latvia. Although these ethnic Russians are not schismatic, it will not be difficult for Putin to find a reason to wage war.
That’s where Nato has to be completely definitive. President Biden is unlikely to use the same language about invasions and invasions that he did so catastrophically before the invasion of Ukraine.
Article 5 of the Nato Treaty comes into force only if potential aggressors appreciate that a Russian boot crossing an inch of Baltic territory would be considered an attack on all of Nato, and would be met with a declaration of war.
Anthony Blinken, the US secretary of state, has been very good at this subject lately, and listening to him there is no reason to believe that the United States will not invoke Article 5, and therefore be prepared to sacrifice Chicago. for Vilnius, Riga or Tallinn. However, even putting it in those terms must lead to suspicion, and so it cannot be repeated too often or too forcefully.
We are often too clever for our own good when dealing with dictators. We often assume that they are just preaching to a domestic audience or sending coded messages, and they didn’t mean it when Adolf Hitler said in January 1939 that the outbreak of war would “lead to the destruction of the world.” extermination of the Jewish race in Europe”, or when the nations of Iran today say they will use nuclear bombs to “wipe Israel from the face of the earth”. As for Lithuania, we cannot say that we were not warned.
