IRELAND is on “orbit” with Omicron waves and a peak is expected “about now”, according to the head of NPHET’s modeling team.
And according to new advice on close contact, people infected with Covid-19 in December do not have to be tested or quarantined if they were in close contact.
Country PMembers of the ublic Medical Emergencies Team gave an update on Omicron waves during a technical meeting today.
Medical directors strongly focus on antigen testing and medical masks along with easing restrictions on close contact for people who have recovered from Covid-19 or have received a booster.
And Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn confirmed that anyone who has contracted Covid-19 since December 1 does not have to undergo a PCR test or self-isolate if they have been in close contact unless they have symptoms.
He said they hope that people who have recovered from the virus in recent weeks will be immune to re-infection with Omicron for the time being.
Dr Glynn said: “We relate anyone who has tested positive since December 1 as now immune to the infection and so they are exempt from movement restrictions and from testing. unless they become symptomatic.”
He added that this advice would remain in place until at least the end of February after further analysis of the duration of immunity.
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The key message remains “anyone with symptoms should self-isolate and get tested.”
NPHET’s modeling team leader Professor Philip Nolan said Ireland was “on the right trajectory” for the worlde Omicron waves.
He said: “You can only identify a peak when it ends. Both in visual terms and in mathematical terms. You have crossed it as the cases are continuously decreasing and the first derivative of the number of cases. yours is negative.
“However, to be fair, we’ve rerun a lot of things. The models are very powerful to be at their peak now.
He added: “We’ll know more about this next week. We’re in the position we’d expect. But we can confirm we’re past the peak that will be delayed. by this cut. But we’re on the right trajectory I think with what we’ve modeled.”
30K REAL PICTURES DAILY
Professor Nolan revealed the actual number of positive PCR tests daily could exceed 30,000.
“The 14-day cumulative incidence was 6,180 per 100,000 population – or 6.1% – we had to be clear that when we reported 20,000 cases a day, we knew the testing system was faulty,” said Prof Nolan. Very limited, we know the positivity rate is 60%, so if we have a perfect elastic testing system we can report in excess of 30,000 cases per day.
“You can estimate that at this point, about three percent of the population has a confirmed active infection. But somewhere between six and 11 percent of the population is infected.”
But despite the large number of cases, the number of people in intensive care has remained stable for the time being.
Professor Nolan added: “The number of cases has quadrupled. The rate of hospitalizations per day has tripled and the average number of people hospitalized per day has doubled – this could indicate length of hospital stay. a little shorter.
STABLE IN ICU
“At the same time, very high levels of infection and a substantial burden of illness with at least a short hospital stay for supportive care have not yet translated into a substantial need for critical care.
“In fact, the number of people in critical care is lower now than it was before Christmas.”
“It’s remarkable that we’ve been seeing five or six intensive care admissions a day for several months now with very high levels of illness.
“Just last week, there were eight enrollments per day and we’ll keep an eye on that.”
Prof Nolan added that the stabilization rate in the ICU has less to do with Omicron being less virulent than Delta, and more to do with the protective vaccinations that have helped people fight off severe illness.
Chief Medical Officer, Dr Tony Holohan said there were many questions about population immunity and he wrote to NIAC to consider whether the fourth booster will soon be needed, especially among older members of the population, who received their third stab in October.
But he said caution was needed to plan “the right vaccination strategy in the future”.
https://www.thesun.ie/news/8194650/covid-19-ireland-omicron-right-trajectory-nphet-isolation/ Covid-19 Ireland – Omicron waves on ‘right trajectory’ as NPHET says people infected since December EXCEPT quarantine