Elon Musk — the world’s richest man and the new owner of Twitter — expects Twitter to earn nearly $10 billion in subscription revenue by 2028, a projection that equates to the $5 billion in total revenue the platform will generate has doubled in the last year, according to a report by The New York Times.
In a pitch deck viewed from the Times, Musk gave investors a taste of what to expect under his ownership. Twitter Blue subscribers are reportedly set to grow to 69 million by 2025 and more than double that number to 159 million by 2028. Introduced last year, Twitter Blue is the service’s $2.99/month subscription that gives users access to a button to undo tweets. App customization, ad-free articles and other exclusive features. Musk also expects huge growth in the total number of Twitter users, growing from the 217 million users reported last year to 600 million Twitter users in 2025 and eventually 931 million in 2028.
The pitch deck also outlines plans for an unnamed subscription service outside of Blue called “X,” which Musk expects will add nine million subscribers in 2023 and 104 million customers by 2028. Earlier this week, Musk hinted that governments and businesses would have a “small cost” to use Twitter. Whatever subscription “X” is, its and Blue’s combined revenue is projected to hit $10 billion by 2028, accounting for a large portion of the $26.4 billion in total revenue Musk believes that the service will be achieved in the same year.
According to the TimesTwitter is expected to cover the remainder of its total projected revenue from ads, something Musk predicts will make Twitter about $12 billion by 2028. Twitter has historically relied on advertising as its main source of revenue, but Musk, who said in a now-deleted tweet that Twitter should remove ads for paid subscribers, wants ads to account for just 45 percent of Twitter’s total revenue.
Musk’s pitch deck also reportedly includes plans to raise $15 million from some type of payments deal, which he expects to grow to $1.3 billion by 2028. Twitter currently allows users to tip creators, buy super-follows, and interact with limited shopping features that redirect users to providers’ websites to make purchases. However, since Musk is one of the co-founders of PayPal, he may see room for expansion.
I really can’t stress enough that Twitter has virtually no data to license; The copyrights of the tweets belong to the users. Elon would have to radically change their terms of service to resell tweets, and there are huge revenue sharing and fair use issues pic.twitter.com/2KPZeYkva3
— Nilay Patel (@ruthless) May 6, 2022
The times notes that Musk also expects Twitter to generate an unspecified portion of revenue from data licensing, a business that sells millions of daily tweets on its platform to companies and developers who analyze the data for market insights or consumer trends. Last year, Twitter made $572 million (PDF) in data royalty and “other revenue,” but it’s unclear how or if Musk plans to grow that business. If Twitter resold individual tweets, our editor-in-chief would be Nilay Patel mention, that that Elon would “need to radically change Twitter’s terms of service,” not to mention “major revenue sharing and fair use issues,” since the copyrights of tweets belong to the users who posted them.
Building Twitter’s services will take some work, a likely factor behind Musk’s plans to hire 3,600 additional employees. The times notes that Musk aims to have 11,072 employees by 2025, although the pitch deck reportedly shows Twitter’s employee count rising in 2022 and then falling in 2023 before trending back up.
https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/7/23061198/elon-musk-double-twitter-revenue-through-subscriptions-blue Elon Musk thinks he can double Twitter’s earnings from subscriptions alone