Bitcoin (BTC) will cost $1 million by 2030, one of the industry’s most prominent experts points out, as countries around the world shun the euro and US dollar.
In his latest blog post, published on April 27, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives giant BitMEX, doubled down on his sky-high price prediction for Bitcoin and gold.
Bitcoin, gold, commodities… just not fiat
With sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, a huge turning point in both geopolitical and economic policies is imminent, says Hayes.
As the US and European Union struggle to reduce dependence on Russian energy and food, the long-term impact is all but certain to hurt them — and send Bitcoin to the moon.
The situation is complex. Inflation, already at a 40-year high before the Ukraine conflict, is being exacerbated by Western sanctions, while Russia is reeling from the West by freezing its offshore assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
China, meanwhile, is monitoring the situation to guard against a copycat attempt targeting its assets.
Since the late 1990s, in exchange for its fiat currency, China has been selling cheap goods to the West, which are then shipped back to importers against government debt. This keeps interest rates low and makes China’s goods even cheaper.
Supply chain disruptions, inflation and now the risk of asset confiscation are changing the status quo. Rather than change its production model, however, Hayes believes China needs to find a way to reduce its vulnerability to worst-case scenarios.
“It is impossible for China to sell trillions of USD and EUR worth of assets without destroying the global financial system. It harms both the West and China equally and severely,” he wrote.
“Therefore, the path of least destruction for these assets is to stop reinvesting maturing bonds in the western financial system. To the extent that China or its proxy state banks can ease western stocks and real estate without hurting the market, they will.”
Hayes identified “storable commodities, gold and bitcoin” as potential exit markets for Beijing. While such a situation would be at the extremes of the spectrum, there should still be a non-zero chance that China will change its stance on issues like bitcoin mining.
“Doom Loop” will trigger $1 million Bitcoin and $20,000 gold
What is more striking, however, is the contribution’s outlook on the future of western democracies and in particular the EU
Related: “Something feels like it’s about to break” – 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Unable to sustain itself, Hayes argues, Russia’s exclusion will fuel an unstoppable fire that will lead to the crumbling of the European project.
Exporters like Germany will not be able to compete with China while rampant inflation within the EU is causing unrest between North and South.
“The ECB is trapped, the EU is dead, and within the decade we will be trading lira, drachmas and deutschmarks again,” he predicts.
“As the Union crumbles, money is printed in glorious quantities in a pantheon of diverse local currencies. Hyperinflation is not off the table. And again, when European savers smell the rocks cooking, they will flee into hard assets like gold and bitcoin. The collapse of the EU = $1 million Bitcoin.”
$1 million per single bitcoin will also come as a result of the “doom loop” in western fiscal policy, specifically yield curve control (YCC) as a tool to prevent bankruptcy.
Alongside this, gold, still the darling of the store of value narrative, will hit as high as $20,000 an ounce by the end of the decade.
In conclusion, Hayes called Bitcoiners to arms and warned that the Bitcoin network needs ownership to survive.
“The doom loop will herald $1 million bitcoin and $10,000-$20,000 gold by the end of the decade. We must advocate for self-serving flags to save some of their current account surplus into bitcoin so that bitcoin farm-to-table economies sprout around the globe. Again, unlike gold, bitcoin needs to move — otherwise the network collapses,” the blog post concludes.
“Don’t be angry with those stubborn flags who refuse to learn even after hearing the good word. As Lord Satoshi said, ‘Forgive them, for they know not what they are doing.’”
As Cointelegraph reported, Hayes is no stranger to sky-high price predictions, having eyed a “million-dollar” BTC price in his previous post in March.
In response, however, macro analyst Alex Krueger called for a reconsideration of some of his points.
“It will leave many readers scarred with the mentality of a gold beetle who believes the world is doomed forever,” he said tweetedwho says that Hayes “fabricates facts and exaggerates things to make his fat-tail narratives seem supremely certain.”
“The Fed, turning dovish again, is starting a new bull run. YCC is a possibility that could happen,” he acknowledged in comments.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ex-bitmex-ceo-explains-how-bitcoin-will-hit-1-million-by-2030 Ex-BitMEX CEO Explains How Bitcoin Will Hit $1M By 2030