Finland’s President Is aware of Putin Properly. And He Fears for Ukraine.

HELSINKI – As growing threat of a new Russian invasion of UkraineThe European head of state with the longest and deepest expertise in coping with Vladimir V. Putin made calls and gave recommendation to President Emmanuel Macron of France and different aspiring world leaders. Thirst for perception into the fastidious neighbor to the east.

“’What do you consider this, about this, or this?’ That is the place I attempt to be helpful,” mentioned Sauli Niinisto, the president of Finland, as shiny mild from the snow and frozen bay flooded into the presidential residence. “They know that I do know Putin,” he added. “And since it really works the opposite manner round, Putin typically says, ‘Properly, why do not you inform your Western mates this, that, and that?’

Mr. Niinisto, 73, says his function shouldn’t be merely as Nordic runner, conveying messages between East and West, however as border interpreter, explaining to either side what he thinks. throughout. The departure from politics of Angela Merkel, who for years as German chancellor led European negotiations with Putin, has made Mr. particularly when the battle drums get louder and louder.

However Mr. Niinisto shouldn’t be optimistic. Earlier than and after his final lengthy dialog with Mr Putin final month, he mentioned he had seen a change within the Russian language. “His mind-set, his dedication, his decisiveness – that was clearly completely different,” Mr. Niinisto mentioned. He believes Mr Putin feels he has to embrace “the momentum he has now.”

He says it is laborious to think about that issues will return to the way in which they have been. The opposing sides dispute the Minsk settlement, which the Russians insist is revered. The remaining choices depart Russia to place strain on Europe and demand from america within the close to future, or, in his phrases, “battle”.

Such simplicity has made Mr. Niinisto, within the fifth 12 months of his second six-year time period, extraordinarily standard in Finland. Some evaluate him to Urho Kekkonen, who took energy in 1956 and dominated Finland for 25 years, in the so-called Finnishization period of the Chilly Warfare.

“We love him,” mentioned Juha Eriksson as he offered reindeer balls, canned bear meat and smoked salmon sandwiches at a market subsequent to the icebergs of the bay. “My era has Kekkonen and he’s the daddy of the nation. And he’s one thing small like that. It is a pity that he has to go away workplace early.”

Mr. Niinisto performs shut 90 percent approval judged him in step with his predecessors and dismissed exaggerated rumors of him being a Putin whisperer. “It’s an exaggeration that in some way I do know extra about Putin or his pondering,” he mentioned. He is clearly cautious about upsetting a relationship he is fostered for over a decade, which incorporates a number of conferences, numerous telephone calls, and a recreation of ice hockey. When requested who is healthier, he diplomatically replied, “I have been enjoying all my life.”

However he did level out some particular advantages. After receiving assist from Mrs. Merkel, he mentioned he requested in 2020 whether or not Putin would enable Aleksei A. Navalny, the Russian opposition chief who accused Russian brokers of poisoning him, to fly to him. Germany for medical therapy or not. Mr. Navalny’s workplace then Thank you Mr. Niinisto.

“He is a very good particular person to name if you wish to perceive what’s taking place within the northeastern nook of Europe and particularly if you wish to perceive President Putin’s pondering,” Alexander Stubb, a former prime minister and overseas minister who accompanied Niinisto in conferences with Putin. “He is a grasp in energy politics and find the precise stability.”

The truth that Mr. Stubb was so ostentatious in regards to the president himself says one thing about Mr. Niinisto’s immense recognition and political dominance in Finland, as political rigidity between the 2 is way talked about right here. .

Mr. Niinisto derives his powers from a key nationwide safety assembly he runs and from the Structure, which states that overseas coverage is “led by the president of the republic in cooperation with the federal government.” “.

“It’s the president – ​​pause – who’s main the way in which in cooperation,” defined Mr. Niinisto, making it clear who got here first.

Finnish officers say Mr. Niinisto conceals his diplomatic modesty, and is understood for his lengthy political reminiscence, tight model and terrifying mission. “I’m typically criticized for remembering an excessive amount of of my outdated historical past as finance minister,” he mentioned with fun.

Home coverage is the territory of the prime minister Sanna Marina 36-year-old former treasurer and local weather change campaigner who sparked Niinisto’s fury in January, in line with Finnish political observers, when she instructed Reuters it was “Very unlikely” that Finland would apply to affix NATO whereas she was in workplace.

“I will nonetheless simply say I do not see any main harm,” he mentioned, with apparent restraint. When requested if her assertion was constructive, he mentioned “I am simply repeating, no harm.”

NATO choice performs an essential function in Finland as a strategic device to handle Putin. In a rustic the place there are numerous sayings in regards to the integrity of Russians (“Russians are Russians even when you fry them in butter”), Mr. Niinisto remembers a narrative about Russian troopers, saying: “The Cossacks took every thing, loosely, however not in a hard and fast manner. ”

Though he remembers that Putin as soon as mentioned Finland’s pleasant neighbor would grow to be an “enemy” if it joined NATO, Mr. Niinisto, who has at all times boasted about Finland’s spectacular artillery pressure, usually repeatedly asserted that Finland had the precise to grow to be a member of the union. “I additionally mentioned that to Putin, very clearly,” he mentioned.

Mr. Niinisto has additionally spoken on to different leaders he sees as threats to democracy. Throughout a memorable joint press convention on the White Home in 2019, he regarded instantly at President Donald J. Trump and mentioned, “You’ve got an incredible democracy. Please proceed. ”

“He has no respect for establishments,” Niinisto mentioned of Trump within the interview, whether or not it’s the European Union or NATO. And the Finns see the U.S. Capitol rebellion as a worrisome signal for American democracy.

However in coping with Putin, Mr. Niinisto tried to present Mr. Trump some pointers forward of their 2018 summit in Helsinki, “actually behind that wall,” he mentioned, gesturing throughout the room. Earlier than the charismatic public efficiency that many noticed as a catastrophe for Mr. Trump, Mr. Niinisto instructed Mr. Trump that Mr. Putin “respects the one who is preventing again”.

Mr. Niinisto mentioned he instructed Mr. Biden one thing comparable earlier than Mr. Biden’s name with Mr. Putin about Ukraine final month.

In addition to the problem of coping with Mr. Putin, Mr. Biden and Mr. Niinisto have one other, and tragic, historical past. In 1995, his first spouse Niinisto died in a automotive accident, leaving him to boost two younger sons.

“I do know his historical past,” Mr. Niinisto mentioned quietly, including that he may take it to the US president, who additionally misplaced his spouse in a automotive crash whereas nonetheless a politician. younger, “possibly sometime if I’ve the flexibility to take a seat with him longer”.

Mr. Niinisto additionally picked up the items. In 2009, then a speaker of the Nationwide Meeting, he married Jenni Haukio, then 31-year-old communications director of the Nationwide Coalition Occasion and now a poet. They’ve a 4-year-old son, and their dogs have become the beloved mascots of the nation.

Earlier than the couple met, he was engaged to Tanja Karpela, a former Miss Finland who was a member of Parliament in an opposition get together. They break up in 2004 and Ms Karpela is at the moment coaching scent-detecting canines to trace Siberian flying squirrels.

The 12 months they parted coincided with the devastating tsunami in Thailand, the place he was on trip along with his sons and was practically swept away. He survived by hanging excessive on a pole for greater than an hour. The traumatic occasion nonetheless appears to shake the staunch president, who misplaced tons of of his countrymen that day. “The individuals who sat subsequent to you at breakfast,” he mentioned.

It was a pure catastrophe. Now, he hopes his relationship with Mr Putin, and the “small strikes” it will probably make, will assist his companions keep away from a synthetic act in Ukraine.

“Harmful instances,” he mentioned.