According to International Coffee Organization (ICO) executive director Vanusia Nogueira, who estimates that about 25 million more 60 kg bags will be needed over the next eight years, global coffee consumption is expected to grow by 1 to 2 percent per year by the end of the decade year rise .
We are now more conservative for a short-term forecast,” Ms Nogueira said during a conference in Hanoi held by the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, referring to all the events the world is facing, including high inflation in Europe.
The ICO’s previous forecast that global consumption will grow by an average of 3.3 percent per year over the next four to five decades is overly “optimistic,” she added.
The global industry will reach a balance between coffee supply and demand in the next two or three years, starting from the current deficit, Ms Nogueira said in an interview with Bloomberg.
The world needs more Arabica and Robusta beans, but the increase in Robusta production and demand will be higher, she said. Traditional Arabica producers are trying to grow Robusta amid global warming, while roasters have also tried adding cheaper Robusta to their blends. “If you have higher quality Robusta, consumers won’t feel much of a difference in the blends.”
Many markets are looking for fine Robusta, Ms Nogueira said at the conference. Vietnam is doing its homework on expanding into high-quality Robusta production “pretty well,” she said, recalling her surprise when, during a visit with a group of international guests at a cafe owned by, she said three sentences, ” very good” coffee cups were tasted by the country’s second largest coffee exporter, Vinh Hiep Co.
The ICO fails to see Vietnam’s global dominance in Robusta exports being affected by Brazil’s increased Conilon production, as Nogueira says the additional production is expected to supply the South American country’s soluble industry, the world’s largest.
She said coffee-growing countries need to boost domestic consumption to bring better prices and benefits to their economies.
Ngo Xuan Nam, chairman of the country’s leading shipper Intimex Group, predicted a drop in shipments from Vietnam in 2022-23 due to lower production and insignificant carry-over stocks from the previous season.
https://www.independent.ie/business/world/global-coffee-consumption-to-rise-1pc-to-2pc-per-year-through-2030-42212272.html Global coffee consumption is projected to increase by 1 to 2 percent per year through 2030