A “red wave” is building this year – or so we said.
Republicans are confident that the country’s sour mood will bring them back to power in Congress, largely because Americans are fed up with the coronavirus and inflation. They think they’ll get about 30 seats in the House of Representatives and four or five seats in the Senate.
“It’s crystal clear,” said Corry Bliss, a partner at FP1 Strategies, a consulting firm that helps Republicans. He added: “The red wave is coming. Stage = Stage. End of discussion.”
But what if that’s wrong? We asked about two dozen strategists in both parties what would happen for Democrats to take hold of the House and Senate in November. And while we didn’t make any predictions, it’s possible. Democrats can retain control of Congress. Hard, but possible.
Democrats have 222 House seats and 50 Senate seats. That means Republicans only need to pick six House seats and one Senate seat to take full control of Congress.
Here’s what needs to happen for Democrats to get the hang of 2022:
Biden voters show up
Experts often say it appears voters are carefully studying each side’s arguments and drawing conclusions. But that’s not exactly how American politics works. Modern elections lean more toward mobilization (getting your supporters to the polls) than persuasion (convincing the other side’s supporters to convert), although both are all important.
Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by more than 7 million votes in 2020. So for Democrats, winning in 2022 means figuring out how to get as many of those people to vote as possible. , although this time Trump will not be on the ballot.
“Their main motivation to vote in the last election was to beat Trump,” Guy Cecil, president of Priorities USA, said Monday. a 30 million dollar digital advertising program to achieve what he calls “The New Biden Voter” in seven rotation states.
The two most recent elections – the 2018 midterm elections and the 2020 presidential vote – saw the largest turnout in history. That means insiders are uncertain about which voters will show up in 2022.
Feeling normal again
Everyone we spoke to agreed: This is the biggest unknown.
While voters are frustrated by today’s high prices, inflation and the coronavirus could fall to manageable levels by the summer. Some strategists say it is essential, politically, for schools to fully reopen in September. If all that happens, Democrats could enter midterms. as the party that beat Covid and brought the booming economy back, or at least fought the Republicans to draw both issues.
But the White House is well aware that it’s not really under control – the virus is.
“The script remains unwritten for the rest of the year,” said Representative Brad Schneider of Illinois, chairman of the New Democratic Alliance, a House censorship group.
Looking ahead to the 2022 US midterm elections
Biden finds a winning message
For months, Democrats have worried that the White House has been too slow to see inflation as a political issue and too mired in endless congressional negotiations. That is changing.
President Biden has spoken more often about the issue, at the urging of moderate Democrats. “The president is realizing his superpower, which is empathy,” said Representative Dean Phillips, a Democrat in a busy Minnesota area.
Sean McElwee, executive director of the Data for Progress group, told us that the president should embrace what he calls “resolvationism” — essentially, seen on TV every day to address issues issues of concern to voters.
After a fall that was characterized by damaging infighting, Democrats have been working to bring more harmony to their messages. With the State of the Union speech due to be released soon, President Biden has the opportunity to rally the country on his vision and the improving economic numbers. But with Build Back Better’s fate now in question, what exactly will he be talking about?
Redistricting the area more or less
Democrats feel satisfied about approved maps so far. Currently, there are only three Democrats running in House districts that Trump won in 2020, and nine Republicans in counties Biden has won.
But there are still a few unknowns. The Democratic-controlled State Legislature in New York is still weighing how drastic it can be to redraw the map of the state. The courts have yet to issue final rulings in Alabama, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And in Florida, Republicans are split between Governor Ron DeSantis’ map and the one proposed by the state Senate.
We know that many of the House districts that will be won in November are in the suburbs, having moved left in recent elections. That could help Democrats. Liberal strategists point out that Republicans will not be able to benefit from the huge profit margins they make in rural areas, and they also note that the seats Republicans have picked up in 2020 are easy people.
Which issue Republicans oppose: Consider what happened in suburban Virginia, where Glenn Youngkin offset the party’s past losses to win the gubernatorial race.
Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade . case
During that Virginia race, Democrat Terry McAuliffe spent millions portraying Youngkin as an abortion extremist. The Democratic Party has believe this problem will help them with suburban women in particular and McAuliffe predicts that abortion will be a “huge boost” for voters. His campaign ran three different ads on the subject, which were broadcast together more than 1,000 times.
It doesn’t work.
Youngkin turns this around, while saying that he wants to focus on the economy, employment and education. Based on exit exploration conducted by Edison Research, only 8% of voters said abortion was most important to their decision, at least of the five pre-selected topics.
But abortion could make a comeback as a matter of voting if the Supreme Court issues a clear rejection of Roe v. Wade this year. If that happens, many Democrats say it could help their candidates in Senate races, where they could highlight Republican positions that the visits The probe shows that out of trend.
Republican candidates are tough
Democrats are keeping a close eye on the Republican primaries, cutting back and saving remarks candidates are making that could prove difficult to defend in a general election. elected. They say Trump’s need to cater to hardline voters has made the Republican brand toxic. But that’s where the consensus ends.
Endangered Democrats want to localize their races as much as possible and love to talk about issues at the kitchen table like jobs and the economy. Nationwide, Democrats are still debating how to convey their alarms about the state of American democracy, which could turn out to be abstract for voters or simply party noise. faction.
Now, Democrats are planning to use January 6 as just one of a number of data points to portray Republicans as extremists on a range of issues, including abortion and climate.
“I don’t think this election will easily fall into the traditional mold, and that’s because of the radicalization of the Republican Party,” said Simon Rosenberg, head of the New Democracy Network.
Trump takes center stage
After the run for governor of Virginia, Democratic strategists launched various efforts to study the lessons of that campaign. One takeaway: Talking about Trump also energizes Republicans, which makes it difficult for Democrats to make the former president the focus in 2022.
Democrats also found that linking a Republican candidate to Trump was ineffective, as McAuliffe did in Virginia. They believe they need to prosecute the Republican candidates directly. But there is an ongoing debate about whether Democratic candidates should do this themselves or let outside groups run offensive ads on their behalf.
The former president endorsed dozens of candidates, who one way or another agree with his misguided view that the 2020 election has been stolen. On Sunday night, he got it straight – falsely claiming that then-Vice President Mike Pence “could have overturned the election” on January 6, 2021.
If Democrats manage to continue with their congressional majority, Trump will be a major player.
What to read
Trump has a larger role than previously known in his plan to use national security agencies to seize voting machines, report our colleagues.
Marc Short, who served as chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence, testified Luke Broadwater reports before the congressional committee investigating the January 6 riots at the US Capitol.
Katie Rogers reports that The White House has chosen Doug Jones, a former Democratic senator from Alabama, to guide the Supreme Court selection through the Senate nomination process.
When our colleague Shane Goldmacher is digging from Monday through an abundance of campaign revelations During the last quarter of 2021, he noticed updates to some very old records.
The records, from 2017 onward, are from PAC Keeping Republican Ideas Strong Timely and Innovative. That is better known as the KRISTI PAC, as told by Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, the former Republican congresswoman who formed the committee.
Governor Noem submitted amendments to no less than 16 old Federal Election Commission reports this week. The modifications are mostly minor. But what’s more interesting is that she made those things. That’s the sort of cleanup that politicians often do when they’re considering a future presidential run, noting that opposition researchers will be looking for any flaws to feed the press. .
KRISTI PAC Treasurer, Kevin Broghamer, is simply tell FEC. that the PAC has “conducted a comprehensive review and reconciliation of all financial activities as of January 1, 2017”.
Noem spokesman, Joe Desilets, said that Broghamer was asked to conduct a review “to ensure the governor’s committees are fully compliant and to amend any records as needed. Unfortunately, there isn’t anything else to read with the revision records. “
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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/01/us/politics/democrats-gop-red-wave.html How Democrats Can Stop the Red Wave