Like Easter, elections are a time of renewal and sacrifice and redemption

A good time for an election. Bing, bang, bosh – and the campaigns are running. Some new faces are leading their pack for the first time. Long gone are the well-known mighty beasts of Northern Ireland politics. Their decades of dominance still cast shadows and lights. It’s time for the newcomers to prove themselves. Some will succeed. Some will fail.

Politicians will try to keep the focus on positivity and hope. Always a challenge. There’s an angry, feverish atmosphere out there, here and around the world. Political battles rage on. Many thousands in the Twittersphere are waving their little virtual fists angrily. Separating, binary. Everyone screams. Nobody listens. There is danger in all of this.

Many feel the pressure. The war in Ukraine, rising bills and fears for the future. The crushed center is further crushed. The worst off are most at risk. Action must be taken. However, it will not alleviate everything. Politicians will have to fight back. The past few years have been an electoral delight for politicians across Northern Ireland. Two general elections, two Westminster elections, one referendum, European elections and one local council election. The punchline of a twisted joke? It feels like.

So here we are again, election number eight since 2016.

Elections are all-consuming giants for the candidate and the team. Designing literature, posters, promotional plans, door knockers, social media posts. The list goes on. A flurry of activity that is largely invisible to most. Does any of this make a difference?

However, this is the reality: most people vote on the basis of party. That’s why independents, including those with long tenure, are struggling. Difficult to hear when your name is on billboards and ballots, but elections are largely determined by the status of the parties. That is why leadership plays such a role.

Experienced and well known, it is Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s first choice for DUP leader. He had a challenging short time bringing the party back together after a turbulent, difficult year for the DUP. There are indications that this work is not yet complete. He needs to handle the problem while running a strong, confident campaign. Many will want to see him fail. He will know that if he wants to stabilize the ship, he must avoid a bad result.

Unlike Sinn Féin, Donaldson’s DUP cannot sit back. Betrayal by Boris Johnson, dissatisfaction with local protocol and difficult decisions set the context. Jeffrey needs to regain ground with clear messages. Both turnout and transfers will play a crucial role. He will try to focus on politics and positivity. The specter of a Sinn Féin First Minister lingers, however; he can’t ignore it. More are concerned about this result than you think, and it’s resonating more than many realize.

TÜV’s Jim Allister will set up his stand with his usual passionate rigor. If Jim had a Jim in every constituency, the MOT would do a lot better. He does not do it. That has always been his biggest challenge. Since 2007, unionists on the doors have clearly wanted Stormont to work. Will his message of “no power-sharing, no Stormont, no compromise” catch on? However, he emphasizes union unity. Referrals from TÜV voters are likely to prove crucial to the fate of the unions in this election.

Sinn Féin has had stable poll numbers for some time. Its base has been solid for a long time and is rarely punished for anything. All Sinn Féin needs is a steady campaign without gawkers or controversy.

The parties are beginning to adjust their tone and message to what they hear on the ground. Sinn Féin dampens border poll rhetoric. Undoubtedly, people raise other concerns on the doors.

However, it is more likely that Sinn Féin will see the issue motivating trade unionists to vote and mobilize around a party. Sinn Féin wants to avoid that. The more Michelle O’Neill raises the temperature, the greater the union’s awareness of the risk. Sinn Fein understands that. They won’t want to do anything to encourage and increase union turnout. What’s more, it takes the union vote to be broken: it’s the best chance of winning the post of first minister. This is tactics, not a fundamental change in approach.

Also new is Doug Beattie from the UUP. Relatively untested, he has adopted a high-stakes strategy to hunt down the votes of liberal unionists. It’s a risk. They’ve proven elusive so far, as Mike Nesbitt found out as UUP leader. Doug’s messy tweeting controversy is rarely mentioned. However, it won’t be gone as it plays poorly to the group it’s aimed at. He burns all other bridges; it needs it to function. The UUP’s best chance of winning back seats was in rural constituencies. How will his dramatic shift from the traditionally conservative UUP to a liberal, left-leaning party affect the villages, farms and towns of rural Ulster? A gamble indeed.

Despite Doug’s campaign, the Alliance Party remains optimistic. Naomi Long as tough as ever. This is not a kinder, gentler kind of liberal politics. It’s a strategy that shouldn’t work, but it does. Taking center stage in worshiping Naomi changes the fate of the Alliance. UUP and SDLP fought, but to succeed they must stem the flow to Naomi’s Alliance.

The way elections are, not everyone can win. People have every right to be hopeful. It’s also perfectly reasonable and logical to worry about an outcome you don’t want. Both aspects occur. Hope, sacrifice, betrayal, disappointment and redemption? This choice can have it all.