Macron needs to deliver at home and on the global stage

Yet visions of an anti-elite “domino” effect after Brexit and Donald Trump are increasingly fading in a post-Ukraine, post-Covid world.

The French voted for a France at the heart of Europe, not on the fringes, albeit one that needs to better protect its people.

This is where Macron has an opportunity. France has strategic clout as the EU’s only nuclear power, with an economy that surpasses Germany and is less dependent on Russian gas in times of war and rising energy prices. But it needs a better direction.

The banker-turned-president knows he needs to change his style of government at home. His liberal reform agenda is no longer in line with French support for an expanded post-Covid state, requiring collaboration with rival parties and unions and buffed Green and Left credentials.

Although voters ultimately rejected Le Pen’s calls for smashing European cooperation and rapprochement with Russia, her left-wing campaign earned her a better score than in 2017. Far-left arsonist Jean-Luc Melenchon’s estimated 17 percent first-round voter supported them in the runoff.

Macron’s recent talking points and victory speech reflect a willingness to pitch a larger political tent.

Assuming he navigates the next few months with the right government in tow, he should be able to cobble together a (probably reduced) majority after June’s general election. Saxo Bank’s Christopher Dembik reckons there’s less than a 25 percent chance he won’t.

While there are no guarantees against protests or strikes, securing a majority or coalition would reduce the likelihood of a deadlock at a time when France is juggling a debt burden of 113 percent of GDP and is under pressure to raise wages in sectors like health and improve education.

Macron will also have to find a new balance between humility and openness on the European stage.

Unity on sanctions against Russia is crumbling, more EU members will join NATO (which he once described as “brain dead”) and the political center of gravity is shifting east, where Paris has historically failed to build diplomatic capital. The climate change, the regulation of tech platforms and the closing of corporate tax loopholes are other topics on the agenda.

There is an opportunity here too. France’s geopolitical clout is crucial to bolstering a pro-Ukrainian stance in supporting Kyiv and reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Paris’ ability to goad Berlin on these issues will be crucial as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – the first foreign leader to call Macron after his re-election – will come under pressure from his coalition to take a clearer line on Vladimir Putin .

Disconnecting the region’s energy links while increasing its defensive capabilities will have a cost.

A re-elected Macron should use his momentum to regain the spirit of the EU’s €1 trillion pandemic recovery plan and push for more spending and solidarity through joint borrowing, as previously proposed in partnership with Italy’s Mario Draghi.

The far-right and far-left parties in France, meanwhile, are going nowhere. They are likely to have a larger political presence as two out of three major electoral blocs (alongside Macron’s centrists) emerge from the rubble of the 20th-century left-right divide. With Macron unable to serve for a third term, the risk of another polarizing stalemate in 2027 remains.

Still, Le Pen faces serious pressure on himself, according to Catherine Fieschi, director of the political research institute Counterpoint.

Le Pen placed the farm on a normalization strategy that eradicated the toxic politics of “Frexit” and brushed off her party’s fascist past in favor of cat videos and budget giveaways.

Her score of just over 40 percent suggests she’s peaked as a presidential hopeful after missing a surprise outperformance in June. Macron made history as the first French president since 2002.

Despite evidence of deep rifts in society and a reluctance to embrace the president’s bad luck for a liberal “revolution,” it still means something.

If he doesn’t deliver on his promise of more protection at home and more projection abroad, it will be a huge missed opportunity.