“More Likely” BTC Price Will Hit $100,000 Before Bitcoin Hits $30,000 Lows, Forecast Says

Bitcoin (BTC) may not crash below $30,000 and instead bounce to $100,000 before bottoming out.

That was the opinion of popular trader Credible Crypto, who on May 2 shared an updated view on how BTC price action could play out.

Trader braces for lows to ‘go unused’

With more voices calling for another major drop in BTC/USD, largely due to macro factors, the long-term bullish outlook remains limited.

However, for Credible Crypto, the pair could equally surprise the market but continue its bull run to new all-time highs and even six figures.

The reason lies in the historical context. In previous years, like 2019, Bitcoin managed to bounce back when the market anticipated a capitulation event. It did not surmount the expected bottoms until much later (in March 2020) after seeing a macro top, and so there is every reason to think it could be similar this time.

In a video with Elliott Waves, Credible Crypto has therefore charted a move to a new macro top between $100,000 and $200,000 for BTC/USD before a drawdown that could take liquidity at $30,000 or below.

“Those lows that have been building – we don’t have to endure them now; We could very well continue with the fifth wave,” he explained.

He added that there was “nothing wrong” in expecting a break of the lows after the all-time highs of November 2021.

“But again, based on the market context and everything else I’ve seen, I think that’s a little bit less likely; I think it’s a lot more likely that we’ll just skip those lows and just keep going higher.”

BTC/USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with lows highlighted. Source: TradingView

Surrender “must not take place”

The same conclusion formed the basis of research by on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant Tuesday.

Related: $27,000 ‘maximum pain’ Bitcoin price is the ultimate buy-the-dip opportunity, says research

An author of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake series analyzed the declining inflows to exchanges and argued that traders were not preparing for a “capitulation” and sell-off.

Inflows “decreased sharply” after January this year, while outflows continued their upward trend.

“So if the market continues to trend as strongly as the media generally predicts, and no horrible events unexpectedly (unpredictably) occur, the crab may repeat, but the capitulation may not happen,” the contributor summarized.

Bitcoin Exchange Netflows vs BTC/USD Chart. Source: CryptoQuant

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