Nama has warned that the number of homes needed to be built each year could be nearly double the government’s current targets.
The state agency, set up in 2009 to take over property lending from Irish banks in the wake of the financial crash, said it had commissioned a new report to examine the number of homes needed to meet future demand as they B. has concerns about the impact of zoning plans on housing supply targets.
This report by economist Ronan Lyons concludes that Ireland needs to build between 2.8 million and 3.4 million homes between 2016 and 2051.
That equates to between 38,000 and 61,000 per year, “which is slightly higher than the 33,000 ESRI figure,” Nama said in a filing she submitted to Fingal County Council regarding the local authority’s new county development plan.
Nama has significant land holdings in Fingal suitable for residential development – adjacent to the M50 at Dunsink and north of Swords at Lissenhall. Both areas are close to existing and planned public transport and can each serve 7,000 households, the state authority states in its submission.
In their submission, Nama urged the local authority to roll out local area plans for both sites as soon as possible to allow for the early development of thousands of homes.
It said it supports the Fingal development plan’s new approach of zoning more land than it needs to meet its goals, as it would help keep zoned land prices low in the capital’s fastest-growing area keep.
“While the plan provides more land than is required to meet the target of 16,245 new homes, we particularly understand and support your reasons for doing so,” the filing reads. “This is a significant reduction from previous targets – 23,500 new homes were targeted in the 2016-2022 plan.
“Reducing the amount of land zoning to reflect such a reduction would result in developed land being unavailable for development that is not in the public interest, particularly during times of rising demand and chronic housing shortages. It would also undermine parallel government goals to dampen land prices.”
Nama said the approach outlined in Fingal’s draft plan “ensures that enough land is zoned, not only to provide choice in the market, but also in case targets set out by the ministry are underestimated.”
“This may not be unlikely given that ESRI’s annual housing needs of 33,000 units are reported in support of the HSTs [housing supply targets] is much lower than reports prepared by other commentators, including the Central Bank and indeed previous ESRI reports,” it said.
“Due to concerns about the impact of the reduced December 2021 housing targets on land zones, including on Nama secured land, we engaged Economist Ronan Lyons to review the assumptions/inputs used by ESRI,” it said.
The Lyons report suggests that assumptions related to fertility and mortality and international migration are conservative and, as a result, underestimate overall housing needs, the Nama filing said.
“The report also points out that one of the main objectives of the NPF [National Planning Framework] is to enable people to live close to their place of work, additional housing needs to be built in Dublin.
“So instead of reducing the capital’s share of the national population, as depicted in the ESRI model, the alternative Lyons scenario allows Dublin’s population to increase to 32 percent of the total.”
For Fingal, this alternative scenario also assumes that his proportion of Dublin’s population will continue to increase, but by half its current trend, the report says.
This would result in 8.1 per cent of Ireland’s population living in Fingal, compared with 6.2 per cent as currently envisaged in the Housing Department’s ESRI model, it said.
The Lyons report found that more than 2,600 units per year could be needed in Fingal, compared to the baseline figure of 1,400 in the Department’s Housing Needs and Demand Assessment (HNDA) tool.
Nama also holds collateral over substantial and primarily residential properties in Fingal, principally in the Swords, Dunsink and Belcamp areas.
Some are capable of development in the short and medium term, while others have a longer-term development horizon, the draft said.
“Nama has funded and continues to finance significant housing projects in Fingal in Belcamp, Oldtown and Mooretown. Additional phases of housing development are progressing at these sites, with Nama-funded proposals for nearly 3,300 homes currently in the planning system,” it said.
Lissenhall’s land bank covers more than 225 hectares, 40 per cent of which is secured to Nama, its submission said.
The alignment of the proposed Metrolink passes through lands over which Nama has security, which will also include the proposed Estuary station and a large park and ride facility.
“We welcome the addition of Lissenhall to the list of sites where a LAP [Local Area Plan] are being prepared and are urging the elaboration of such a legal framework within the first year of the development plan cycle.
“Our concern is that the lack of a LAP will firstly undermine the further identification of the area for mixed development and secondly dilute the business case for moving Metrolink north of Swords,” it said.
The Nama filing noted that Fingal’s new draft plan does not include Dunsink as an area where a LAP is being prepared. “As with Lissenhall, we are urging the creation of a LAP in the first year of the development plan cycle.
“Failure to prepare such a legal context in the 2023-2029 cycle unnecessarily stalls the development of this site in the 2030s at the earliest, but possibly in the early 2040s, at a time when Dublin is experiencing a severe housing shortage.
“This contradicts the principles of sustainable development.”
It is argued that the Dunsink properties are suitable for shorter term development as they adjoin an existing development in Ashtown/Pelletstown and benefit from existing public transport infrastructure.
“The nearby Maynooth railway line is to be upgraded to Dart standard and a planning application is due to be submitted in 2022.
“Nama welcomes the zoning of these two land banks as it not only aligns with the many valuable strategic outcomes of the NPF, such as: B. that local authorities develop a long-term strategic vision of housing needs; supports compact growth; sustainable mobility; and the transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient society.
“It also supports the business case for government considering investments in costly but essential public transport infrastructure.”
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/state-is-likely-to-need-twice-the-30000-target-of-new-homes-a-year-nama-warns-41670593.html Nama warns that the state will likely need twice the target of 30,000 new homes per year