When Russian troops entered Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, Nato was caught up in Moscow’s unexpected and unorthodox military campaign.
Now, with the Russian army that used to again mass at the border of Ukraine, the international military alliance is keen to avoid a repeat performance.
The two sides are negotiating, with the stated aim of avoiding an armed escalation that would involve many of the world’s most powerful militaries. But if conflict is inevitable, who will lose if Nato and Russia go head to head on the battlefield?
A Kremlin spokesman this weekend dismissed suggestions that there are already Russian troops “on Ukrainian soil”, claiming the deployment of military forces to its border is necessary in the wake of the conflict. context “the situation is very tense and the environment is very unfriendly”.
Dmitry Peskov said CNN that “there are no Russian troops on the Donbas and on Ukrainian soil,” a claim that was questioned after eyewitness accounts of Russian troops “in uniform” in the Donbass region, Politico reported.
Peskov said Russia was ready to reach a compromise that would reduce tensions in the region.
When asked when that could happen, he said: “We’re not talking about tomorrow, we’re not talking about hours… [but] We don’t want to see a month-long or a year-long negotiation discussing our disagreements. From the outset, we wanted to feel a willingness to take our concerns into account. Currently, unfortunately, we can’t do that. ”
Last week, Nato’s top military official, Admiral Rob Bauer, told reporters that negotiations with Russia “have not resulted in any major changes in the intelligence landscape that we see.”
What is Nato’s ability?
The core principle of NATO’s international military alliance is the system of collective defense, meaning that if any member state is attacked by a third party, every member state must step in to protect it. it.
Fortunately for countries like Montenegro, which spend just £67m a year on defense, there are some military giants in the alliance.
The US spends more than twice on defense than the rest of Nato combined, with an estimated 2021 spending of $705 billion (£516 billion), according to Department of Defense.
As well as being the largest defense spender in the world, the US has a powerful arsenal and a huge pool of manpower – 1.3 million active-duty troops, with another 865,000 in reserve. New York Times in 2017. The UK is second largest overall spender in Nato, putting almost £50 billion into defense annually compared with £45 billion for Germany, £42 billion for France and £20 billion for Italy.
What are Russia’s capabilities?
Russia’s military capabilities cannot be sniffed, easily ranked among the most powerful countries in the world.
According to Washington-based newspaper Heritage Foundation, its inventory includes “336 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 2,840 battle tanks, 5,220 armored infantry fighting vehicles, more than 6,100 armored personnel carriers, and more than 4,684 guns”.
But it is lacking in several areas of modern military technology, including drone capabilities, electronic components, and radar and satellite reconnaissance, Russian journalist and military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said. Deutsche Welle.
“That’s what the Russian military is talking about: yes, we have weapons, including long-range weapons, but our reconnaissance capabilities are weaker than our offensive capabilities,” Felgenhauer said. “So we have long-range guided weapons, sometimes accurate, but we don’t always know where the target is.”
Who is win?
Research published in 2019 by American Institute of the Royal Service (RUSI) found that British forces would be “totally defeated” in any conflict with Russia in Eastern Europe.
RUSI found that the British Army and its Nato allies were experiencing “severe shortfalls” in artillery and ammunition, meaning they would struggle to maintain a reliable defensive position if Russia Denial of all-out aggression.
The RUSI report said: “There is now a risk that the UK – unable to reliably fight – could be dominated by de-escalation by powers threatening to escalate.”
But Great Britain need not stand alone against Russia. Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts told Deutsche Welle and NATO’s biggest rival, the United States, has an overwhelming advantage over Russia in terms of conventional forces.
While Felgenhauer agrees with Golt’s assessment of the U.S. military advantage, he cautions that open war often comes down to more than the inventory that each side to the conflict can collect.
He told DW that “it’s like predicting the outcome of a football match” and added: “Yes, basically, Brazil should beat the US in football, but I’ve seen the Americans beat it. Brazil in South Africa, at the Confederations Cup. You never know the outcome until the game is played. ”
https://www.theweek.co.uk/the-week-unwrapped/104574/nato-vs-russia-who-would-win Nato vs. Russia: Who will win a war?