Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season was loopy. Underdogs went 12-4 towards the unfold, setting a file for probably the most underdogs to cowl in Week 1 in NFL historical past. There have been some unhealthy beats, with the 49ers’ non-cover standing out because the worst of the bunch, and some different video games that got here all the way down to the ultimate drive.
Total, Week 1 was a studying expertise, per common. Now, Week 2 of the NFL season is right here, and bettors are feeling quite a bit higher concerning the information they have been given. That may assist savvy gamblers discover undervalued groups. Testing the tendencies that would influence every crew will assist out, too.
That mentioned, simply because issues did not go your approach in Week 1 doesn’t suggest it is time to overreact. Too usually, bettors let one recreation affect them and throw all of their offseason analysis out the window to chase current tendencies. That is a sure-fire strategy to lose cash.
Possibly your sleeper crew did not cowl, however there’s nonetheless loads of time for them to get again on monitor. And perhaps your greatest guess did not hit, however that does not imply that the crew is unhealthy. They may have simply had a foul week, just like the Packers did in Week 1.
Week 2 will assist proceed to form our betting technique as we study extra about every crew. For now, it appears to be like like there are some good matchups that bettors can benefit from in Week 2, so we’ll depend on tendencies and a few current outcomes to inform us what these are.
This is a take a look at Sporting Information’ greatest bets for Week 2 of the 2021 NFL season, together with picks towards the unfold, moneyline bets, over/beneath wagers and a few participant props.
(All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Chiefs (-3.5) at Ravens
The Chiefs and Ravens each hit pace bumps of their season openers, however solely the Chiefs emerged with a win. Patrick Mahomes helped the Chiefs overcome a 12-point deficit throughout a second-half rally towards the Browns. In the meantime, the Ravens blew a 14-point lead towards the Raiders. It marked the primary time they’d misplaced a recreation during which they’d a 14-point lead since 2014.
Up till Monday night time’s additional time loss to the Raiders, the Ravens had gained 98 straight video games relationship again to 2004 once they had a 14+ point-lead.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 14, 2021
These performances apart, the Chiefs maintain a major benefit over the Ravens in current conferences. John Harbaugh has struggled to beat Andy Reid throughout his profession. He has only a 1-5 file towards him in six conferences. That features 4 consecutive losses to Reid’s Chiefs, and within the three video games that includes Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, the Chiefs have gained by a median of seven.3 factors per recreation.
|2020||Chiefs win 34-20|
|2019||Chiefs win 33-28|
|2018||Chiefs win 27-24|
|2015||Chiefs win 34-14|
Jackson has largely struggled in these contests. He has averaged simply 170.3 passing yards in three video games towards Kansas Metropolis, all losses. He has performed higher along with his legs — working for 196 yards — however he has solely accounted for 4 whole TDs whereas committing two turnovers and being sacked 9 instances. Solely the Browns (12) have sacked Jackson extra throughout his profession.
The Ravens are additionally banged up within the secondary, and could not maintain up late towards the Raiders. If Jimmy Smith cannot play, that would make Patrick Mahomes’ job a bit simpler. Even when he does play, Marcus Peters’ absence will proceed to loom giant and Mahomes ought to be capable to choose aside the Ravens’ protection.
The tendencies say that betting on the Chiefs is an efficient worth at -3.5, so we’ll be trusting them even in a tricky Baltimore highway surroundings.
Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Titans
This choose is all about trusting the Seattle crowd to rattle Ryan Tannehill’s Titans.
The Seahawks have the most effective home-field benefits within the NFL. The twelfth man tends to indicate up in full pressure, and that is a part of why Russell Wilson has posted a 55-17 file at residence throughout his profession.
Seattle has gone 44-32-2 towards the unfold at residence since Wilson took over at quarterback in 2012. That is good for a canopy proportion of 57.9, which is tied for the third-best within the NFL over the past 9 seasons.
Evidently, the “twelves” will wish to welcome again their hometown crew with a win. The Seahawks could be trusted to win by a landing after the Titans struggled to comprise Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Tennessee allowed Arizona to attain 38 factors. Wilson is the NFL quarterback that’s most much like Murray, so the Tennessee protection might proceed to battle in protection.
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Broncos (-6) at Jaguars
Every week after underdogs went 12-4, our greatest bets for the week are three favorites. Go determine, however hopefully, the precept of “regression to the imply” comes into play right here.
This is one thing you in all probability do not find out about Teddy Bridgewater: throughout his profession, the Broncos quarterback has posted a 36-13-1 record against the spread as a starter. He has been as regular as they arrive by way of delivering covers, and he ought to have an opportunity to try this simply towards the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is a dumpster hearth proper now, to place it kindly. City Meyer’s time in Jacksonville is already off to a rocky start, and his crew simply misplaced to the Texans by 16 regardless of being favored by three factors.
The Broncos simply manhandled the Giants and allowed solely seven factors earlier than a last-second TD scramble by Daniel Jones minimize the result in 14. The Broncos have a powerful roster and will be capable to hold Trevor Lawrence and Co. in examine. They’ve a great probability to win this recreation by double digits, although enjoying in sizzling, humid Jacksonville might be a problem for Denver.
Eagles moneyline (+164) vs. 49ers
The Eagles are coming off a dominant win over the Falcons, however that is not the primary cause for this choose. It is extra concerning the 49ers’ secondary.
San Francisco misplaced its prime cornerback, Jason Verrett, to a season-ending ACL tear in Week 1. Verrett was injured with 7:54 left within the fourth quarter and the 49ers main 41-17. After he left the sport, the 49ers have been helpless to cease the Lions’ passing assault. They allowed 1.9 yards per play extra with Verrett sidelined and gave up practically as many factors in three drives with out Verrett as they did in 11 drives with him.
|Splits||Lions performs||Lions yards||Yards per play||Lions factors|
|Earlier than Verrett’s harm||59||288||4.9||17|
|After Verrett’s harm||29||196||6.8||16|
Actually, that is not a great signal for the 49ers. Their present cornerback depth chart is topped by the likes of Josh Norman, Dre Kirkpatrick, Dontae Johnson, Okay’Waun Williams, rookie Ambry Thomas and rookie Deommodore Lenoir. That may make it arduous for them to comprise an improved Eagles receiving corps, particularly provided that the crew additionally struggled to handle T.J. Hockenson.
Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith ought to do sufficient to maintain the Eagles within the recreation towards the 49ers. Their protection will assist decelerate the 49ers’ run recreation, which is with out Raheem Mostert, in order that’s a optimistic as effectively.
The Eagles are ok within the trenches to win this one outright. It’s going to simply rely on whether or not Hurts can proceed to throw precisely and make the fitting selections towards the 49ers’ protection.
Lions at Packers: OVER 48.5 (-108)
Sure, the Packers scored simply three factors of their Week 1 loss to the Saints, however that looks as if an aberration. And Aaron Rodgers and Co. needs to be able to carry out effectively towards a a lot weaker protection.
The Packers have been wonderful at bouncing again after losses beneath Matt LaFleur. He’s in his third season teaching the crew and they’re 6-0 following a loss within the common season beneath his watch.
What they’ve performed offensively in every of these video games is much more spectacular. The Packers have averaged 33.2 factors after regular-season losses since LaFleur turned coach in 2019. They’ve by no means failed to attain fewer than 24 factors in any of these contests.
The Lions simply allowed the 49ers to rack up 41 factors on them in a recreation the place 74 whole factors have been scored. Even when the Packers come out swinging and make this a blowout, the Lions can have an opportunity to get some rubbish time factors to help the over. This looks as if a stable guess so long as the road would not transfer above 50.
Vikings vs. Cardinals: OVER 50.5 (-118)
That is one other NFC recreation that appears prone to hit the over. The Vikings have had the over hit in 12 of their final 17 video games relationship again to the start of the 2020 NFL season. They’ve struggled to comprise opposing passing offenses, and viewers noticed that firsthand of their loss to the Bengals.
Joe Burrow was capable of throw the ball comparatively simply towards Minnesota’s porous secondary. Simply think about what Kyler Murray and Co. will be capable to do towards that unit with Murray wanting absolutely wholesome. Arizona took on a equally overrated Tennessee protection in Week 1 and posted 38 factors. They might have an opportunity to try this once more in Week 2.
The one concern right here is that the Vikings will in all probability have to mount not less than an honest offensive outing for this quantity to hit. That might be powerful contemplating how good the Cardinals go rush seemed with Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt working collectively. Nonetheless, the Vikings have some explosive playmakers like Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook dinner that ought to enable them to maneuver the ball sufficient for this to hit.
When you’re too afraid to guess an over above 50, be at liberty to guess the Cardinals to go over 27.5 factors. That ought to occur on this one. The main drawbacks right here come solely on the Vikings’ aspect of the ball.
Jets level whole: UNDER 17.5 (-114) vs. Patriots
Taking the Patriots at (-5.5) within the recreation would not be a foul guess, however the perfect guess involving the sport is the beneath for the Jets’ level whole. Zach Wilson had some points in his first begin towards a stable Panthers protection. He did not get something going till the Jets have been down by 16 factors, and he took six sacks for 51 yards on the day. He led the Jets to simply 14 factors in the course of the contest.
Now, he’ll face a Patriots protection that’s even higher than that of the Panthers. He additionally will get to face a coach who has been elite towards rookie quarterbacks for the final twenty years.
Invoice Belichick all the time finds a strategy to rattle rookie quarterbacks. The Patriots’ coach has a 21-6 profession file towards rookies, and New England has allowed a median of 10.2 factors of their final 5 video games towards rookie QBs. That dates again to 2018. The rookies they confronted throughout that span are Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones.
Not all of these quarterbacks have panned out, however Allen, Herbert and Tagovailoa not less than look to be sturdy starters. If the Patriots have restricted these gamers to a median of 10.2 factors, they will actually hold Wilson to beneath 17.5. They might have an opportunity to close out Wilson if all goes effectively; they did shut Herbert out final season, so be at liberty to belief the Patriots on this spot.
Participant props might be added all through the week main as much as video games.
Antonio Gibson speeding makes an attempt: OVER 16.5 (-114)
The Washington Soccer Crew is taking over the Giants on “Thursday Evening Soccer,” they usually’ll be doing so with their backup quarterback. Taylor Heinicke will begin rather than an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick in what figures to be a grind-it-out kind of recreation.
What does that imply for Antonio Gibson? Effectively, it implies that Washington might run the ball extra. They will wish to put as little stress on Heinicke as potential, and establishing the run would give them an opportunity to manage the clock and put on down the Giants’ protection.
It additionally helps that Washington has a powerful protection that ought to pressure Daniel Jones into some turnovers. If they will try this and may rating off turnovers to construct a lead, that can give Gibson extra alternatives to hold the ball.
Gibson would not have a variety of competitors for carries on the roster. J.D. McKissic and Jaret Patterson ran the ball simply three whole instances in Week 1 whereas Gibson received 20 carries. As long as he would not fumble, Gibson ought to have an opportunity to get 20 carries once more to assist Heinicke.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/information/nfl-best-bets-week-2-picks/11xcz1680ckcu1mlfdv0w8pdyx | NFL greatest bets Week 2: Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos amongst smartest picks to focus on