Right here we’re in Week 5, and I really assume the eight quarterbacks atop the NFL MVP betting board every have a authentic shot. That’s greater than I can recall in latest Octobers. That is as a result of I consider their groups have a possible path to a top-two seed of their respective conferences — in a league that simply appears extra broad open than in years previous.
Satirically, the one which issues me essentially the most is the brand new betting favourite. I nonetheless query whether or not the Cardinals have the coach and protection to outlive a tricky division and outperform different contenders for a excessive seed. I say that as a result of 11 of the final 14 MVP winners have been quarterbacks from a top-two seed. Nonetheless, Kyler Murray (+500) is such a singular expertise that he may win the dignity, even when Arizona simply reaches the playoffs.
So who has precise worth in a one-way betting market? I’m as aggravated as anybody I didn’t seize Murray’s 25/1 value this summer season, and he may set up himself as a transparent front-runner, very like Shohei Ohtani did for A.L. MVP early within the baseball season. Bear in mind when bettors didn’t see worth at +150 for Ohtani, who simply closed within the neighborhood of -4000?
I nonetheless assume the NFL MVP market is so fickle and depending on a workforce’s playoff seed that I’d not guess Murray at his present value. The one wagers I’d think about this week are Patrick Mahomes (+650), Josh Allen (+800) and Dak Prescott (+1000). Full disclosure: I have already got tickets on Mahomes (+550) and Allen (+1000) however I perceive the attract of all three.
Allen and Mahomes sq. off Sunday evening with Kansas Metropolis as a 2.5-point residence favourite. If the Payments win, I can see Allen catapulting to change into a top-three favourite. And he has a mushy schedule forward. The Chiefs are simply one in all three remaining Buffalo opponents that presently personal a profitable file. Buffalo faces New Orleans and Tampa Bay on the street however the Payments simply may already be the league’s finest workforce.
Prescott has shined in his return from harm and Dallas’ protection will not be such a weak hyperlink. The Cowboys will journey to New England, Minnesota, Kansas Metropolis and New Orleans, however I believe 3-1 or 2-2 is feasible. They might feast on a poor division after which the MVP may even come down the Week 17 residence sport in opposition to Murray and the Cardinals.
Tremendous Bowl futures
Kansas City Chiefs +550
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600
Buffalo Bills +800
Los Angeles Rams +1000
Green Bay Packers +1200
Cleveland Browns +1300
Baltimore Ravens +1600
Arizona Cardinals +1600
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Los Angeles Cowboys +2000
Bear in mind how I vented about Murray and his 25/1 odds? Forecasting the betting market is as vital as making the best alternative. Timing is every little thing. The Chiefs, Bucs and Payments ought to all be within the combine come January, however these odds don’t curiosity me. For instance, Kansas Metropolis’s +550 price ticket interprets to a 15.4% probability. Do you assume this squad, in a aggressive division and with a suspect protection, will win the Tremendous Bowl greater than 15.4% of the time? What about Tampa Bay (14.2%) or Buffalo (11.1%)? I simply really feel just like the market is correct on them and I might quite wait to how issues unfold with accidents and upsets. Mainly, I doubt these are the apex odds.
Inexperienced Bay (+1200) nonetheless pursuits me however a brutal stretch from Weeks 8 to 12 provides me pause: at Arizona, at Kansas Metropolis, vs. Seattle, at Minnesota and residential to the Rams. Aaron Rodgers makes it look really easy and often finds a technique to ship however we may in all probability seize longer odds after a November loss or two.
They solely confirmed flashes final evening however the Los Angeles Chargers really feel like worth at 20/1 (4.8%). My apprehension stems from the truth that the following two weeks signify two of their three hardest remaining video games. Nonetheless, a house win over Cleveland and/or a street win over Baltimore may place the Chargers for a excessive seed and crash their present odds. A house tilt with Kansas Metropolis in mid-December nonetheless stays however bear in mind, the Chargers have already got a win at Arrowhead. The remainder of the schedule breaks fairly nicely so I believe 20/1 simply is likely to be as excessive as we see with the Chargers, although their home-field benefit is actually non-existent. The time is now for a Bolts guess.
Different awards to observe
I do know +120 is rarely enjoyable to guess for a wager that’s three months from being graded nevertheless it certain seems like an harm is the one factor stopping Derrick Henry from profitable a 3rd straight speeding title. He presently has 510 yards and the next-closest is Nick Chubb with 362. He is additionally a monster bellcow with at the very least 30 extra carries than anybody else – by way of solely 4 video games. At 6’3″ and 247 kilos, he’s as scary as he’s dependable. Henry has solely missed two video games in his five-plus seasons.
Alongside the identical mundane strains of minimal payout, is anybody in addition to Dak Prescott realistically going to win Comeback Participant of the Yr? He is the odds-on favourite at -170 after which Joe Burrow is subsequent at +700. Burrow has been stable however Prescott has been distinctive and Dallas is a -250 favourite to win the NFC East. With possible workforce success, a high-profile franchise and a robust supporting solid, Prescott is actually poised to run away with this award. Christian McCaffrey (20/1) entered the season with a shot however he is already been sidelined with an harm. I simply do not see Sam Darnold (11/1), Jameis Winston (18/1) or Saquon Barkley (25/1) outshining the quarterback of the playoff-bound Dallas Cowboys.
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