Putin has a choice Blitzkrieg or Small Invasion in Ukraine

“We believe that President Putin has made the decision,” Blinken said on Sunday, “but until the tanks really roll and the planes are in flight, we will take advantage of every opportunity and every minute. one to see if diplomacy might upset the President. Putin from the implementation of this forward. ”

The information passed to Mr. Biden from intelligence agencies remains unclear whether Mr. Putin’s orders will lead to a major invasion or a gradual approach will give the Russian leader more opportunity to exploit the fissures just below the surface of the alliance the West is resisting. he. For example, he could test the suggestion that Germany or Italy, the two Western European nations most dependent on Russian-supplied gas, might falter in their resolve.

Those are the scenarios that are most hotly discussed this weekend at the Munich Security Conference, the annual meeting of government ministers, corporate leaders and strategists where diplomats, ministries Government heads and corporate leaders make Putin’s choices.

Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical consulting firm, said: “If he intends to escalate, I don’t think it is a surprise for Kyiv and the overthrow of the Zelensky government. . “Most likely it looks like an independent recognition of breakaway territory” around Luhansk, in the east.

“You hope, if you were Putin, that would lead to some NATO allies being less skillful, less aligned with NATO, more opportunities for Russia to get what they want,” Bremmer said. there is no need to go all the way into Ukraine.” .

Several weeks ago, several American officials shared that sentiment. They note that Mr. Putin probably wants to achieve his goals – regime change and prevent Ukraine’s drift towards the West – as cheaply and with as few casualties as possible. All he is looking for is a friendly, flexible government like the one he has in Belarus, a senior US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of ongoing foreign policy. The President of Belarus, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, has linked his country’s security to the presence of the Russian military. (“They will stay here as long as necessary,” said Lukashenko, who is considering inviting Russia to place nuclear weapons back on Belarusian territory.)

Many suspect this is an improvement on Russia’s mixed war drama. “Putin has developed and demonstrated over a decade of action that he knows how to navigate grayscale warfare,” said Senator Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat close to Biden. hard to attribute.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/putin-ukraine-strategy.html Putin has a choice Blitzkrieg or Small Invasion in Ukraine

Fry Electronics Team

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