Putin’s media blitz over the food crisis in Africa has sparked alarm in Europe

The attack on public relations shows how the months-long war in Ukraine is turning into a global propaganda battle as food, fuel and fertilizer prices soar. EU and UK officials who have recently met their African counterparts at meetings in New York and Rwanda have expressed concern that the Russian embassy is gaining traction, said senior European diplomats, who asked not to be identified.

In response, European governments increased engagement with leaders on the continent and stepped up their own information campaigns to counter the Russian narrative, the diplomats said.

A senior European intelligence officer said the Kremlin staged the debate as a means of lifting sanctions and intends to use the threat of global hunger as a negotiating tool in future peace talks. Moscow has focused much of its influence operations on Africa and the Middle East, the official said.

No connection

The US and EU have not sanctioned Russian agricultural products and say there is no link between sanctions against Moscow and grain or fertilizer exports from Russia or Ukraine.

That hasn’t stopped Russian embassy officials across Africa from blaming the West for the crisis. Recent examples include the Russian ambassador to Djibouti, who tweeted a graphic accusing the EU of lying about gas and food shortages, while a Russian diplomat in South Africa published an editorial in the Mail & The Guardian newspaper, entitled ” Russian Embassy rejects accusation made by Western propaganda of provoking global famine.”

Social media campaigns have amplified their messages, with Facebook pages mimicking Kremlin talking points in French and targeting West African nations like Mali and Ivory Coast, according to Moustafa Ayad, executive director for Africa, the Middle East and Asia at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. a London-based think tank that analyzes online disinformation. Online conspiracy groups in South Africa have also been targeted, he said.

The head of the United Nations World Food Program, David Beasley, has said Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports is a “declaration of war” on global food security as 49 million people in 43 countries face famine.

“Since the start of the Ukraine war, food and fuel prices have increased dramatically in countries around the world,” he said June 24. “Now millions could starve.”

Global food prices rose to a record high after the February 24 Russian invasion disrupted exports of grain and vegetable oil through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, adding to cost pressures from logistical difficulties and a recovery in consumer demand following the coronavirus pandemic. This has exacerbated a hunger crisis affecting countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

While Ukraine and its allies in the US and Europe are accusing Russia of blocking exports and Moscow is pointing the finger at Kyiv, the UN-backed talks have so far failed to produce a compromise on resuming supplies.

Read: Putin has reason to drag a grain deal with Ukraine

According to the US Department of Agriculture, before the war Russia and Ukraine accounted for three quarters of world sunflower oil exports, about 30% of wheat and 15% of corn. Grain shortages have pushed prices higher, with global benchmarks for wheat and corn rising 22% and 12% respectively this year.

“The crisis is caused by Russia. Without this invasion, we would not be in the situation we are in,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. “The price shock is inevitable and it is directly related to the war.”

Food costs account for 40% of consumer spending in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 17% in advanced economies.

In 2020, Africa imported $4 billion worth of agricultural products from Russia, 90% of which was wheat, while $2.9 billion worth of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, barley and soybeans came from Ukraine, Sihlobo said. FAO data shows that Eritrea and Somalia depended almost entirely on Russia and Ukraine for their wheat supplies last year, while Tanzania, Namibia and Madagascar depended on them for more than 60% of supplies.

Russian and Ukrainian harvests and exports have risen sharply over the past decade, and farmers in the region typically produce at lower costs than more traditional suppliers like Canada and the US, which has helped keep wheat prices low. Proximity to North Africa also reduces shipping costs compared to more distant suppliers.

Part of the Russian propaganda effort has been to reinforce statements by African officials that can be seen as supporting Russia’s argument. After African Union President Macky Sall met Putin for talks in the resort town of Sochi on June 3, Sall said the sanctions had exacerbated the food crisis.

“Anti-Russia sanctions have exacerbated this situation, and now we don’t have access to grain from Russia, especially wheat,” Sall said. “And above all, we have no access to fertilizers. The situation was bad and now it has deteriorated, creating a threat to food security in Africa.”

colonial heritage

Russia can draw on its historical role in supporting liberation movements in parts of Africa during wars and struggles against colonial and all-white rule – support that helped the former Soviet Union enlist the US and Europe as part of its Cold War strategy undermine gain influence in Africa. On the other hand, Great Britain and France are still under suspicion as former colonial powers.

“What we’ve seen are narratives that are very precisely focused on how the US is orchestrating this conflict along with NATO to starve the globe,” Ayad said. “Colonialism must be calculated with African disinformation. That’s what the Kremlin is banking on: Western states instead of challenging the Kremlin as an imperial power.”

The danger is “very great” that Putin will try to establish a narrative that the West is responsible for the famine in Africa, German Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Andrea Strasse said on June 3. “That’s a narrative that we’re determined to resist,” she said.

French President Emmanuel Macron said at the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in the Bavarian Alps last week that he would announce measures to step up the “fight against disinformation” in September. At a press conference, he described Russia’s efforts to link the food crisis to sanctions as “fake news”.

The Russian propaganda campaign is also getting under the skin of the Americans.

“The Russian government’s attempts to deflect responsibility for its actions by blaming others for the deepening crisis in the global food system are reprehensible,” the US State Department said in a June 22 statement titled “The World lying about global food security”. “The Russian government should stop weaponizing food and allow Ukraine to safely ship its grain to feed millions of starving people in the Middle East and Africa.”

Bloomberg