Roast beef could challenge Turkey’s Christmas crown in the UK this year

As turkey dropped in volume last December, experts believe revelers are moving away from the traditional centerpiece to other options. And with the cost-of-living crisis leaving many families cash-strapped, Christmas could give pork a boost as it offers a cheaper alternative for those who still want to indulge.

The predictions follow warnings this week of a shortage of Christmas turkeys and price increases due to the country’s biggest bird flu outbreak.

Ahdb senior retail insight manager Kim Heath said turkey shortages, the cost of living crisis and new buying trends over the past few days of Christmas all have the potential to boost red meat sales this year.

“After two years of unpredictable Christmas periods, we were hoping that this year would be about treatments and big celebrations,” Kim added. “But the difficult economic situation means that the cost of living crisis makes Christmas 2022 just as unpredictable as a Covid Christmas.

“We’ll likely see a shift towards cheaper roasts, which will benefit pork. But with a potential shortage of turkeys, there’s an opportunity for people to switch to beef and lamb for consumers who want a show-stopping centerpiece, especially when they can have more people around the dinner table this year.”

Frozen options for meat and dairy desserts may also benefit from budget-conscious shoppers this holiday season, with standard and budget brands likely to steal market share this Christmas.

And with more families getting together this year after several years of restrictions and uncertainties due to Covid, bigger skillets could benefit as many switch back to larger sizes to feed more people on Christmas Day.

According to AHDB analysts, Christmas will still be the biggest seasonal event for retailers as consumers spend more — even during times of economic uncertainty. During the 2008 recession, spending per household on consumer-packaged groceries in December was 11 percent higher than the average for the previous three months.

However, according to research agency Two Ears One Mouth, 53 percent of shoppers plan to take advantage of more in-store offers and discounts to cope with the rising cost of living.

Kim added: “Despite the economic situation this year, we can safely predict that Christmas will still see significant upsides compared to the rest of the year. However, a shopping cart may look different than in previous years to cope with budget constraints.

“It must be remembered that the basics of a Christmas sale remain by tradition, but small changes can be made. As more shoppers look to reduce their spending, tactical support in the meat and dairy categories store will be essential.”

PA