Russia siege of Kyiv combined with ‘worst case scenario’ air strikes for Ukraine tactics

For a moment, the idea that the Russian military might have to follow clear routes (as the logistical means had proved useless on the road) – a boon to artillery and aircraft units was not Ukrainian driver.

Historically Russia’s tactic – in Syria and Chechnya, and witnessed to some extent in Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol – has been to strike urban areas with rockets before any attack. ground work to enter.

Most of the world hopes that won’t happen in Kyiv. And so does Russia, assuming it wants to capture the iconic city largely intact.

But a concentrated ground attack could put Vladimir Putin’s army at a significant disadvantage. This type of combat, with limited radio communications, and a much better understanding of the terrain by the Ukrainian defenders than the attackers, will require much higher standards of training, especially in the area. junior Russian soldiers.

In urban warfare, it is imperative to stop armored vehicles moving at will.

Street barricades constructed of metal and concrete must be erected.

If the defenses are too flimsy or shallow, tanks and other armored vehicles will overcome them.

Therefore, it is very important to know the exact size and capabilities of the approaching enemy vehicles. All defensive structures must be covered by firing points, to destroy the tanks strung with long rows of barbed wire around the tracks, or the engineering vehicles that are brought forward to break the obstacles. object.

At that time, Ukraine will have the advantage both in terms of defensive troops on all roads and the sheer amount of anti-tank weapons that have flooded into the country in the past weeks.

A series of next-generation light anti-tank weapons (NLAW) with minimal side effects on launch to protect soldiers using the weapon have been sent to Ukraine.

Last week Ben Wallace, Britain’s defense secretary, said 3,615 people have been deployed, meaning rooms in every building on every street have the capacity to accommodate a defender.

That would occupy the minds of the Russians, but could also mean that they rely even more on destroying infrastructure.

Anti-tank weapons without a “soft launch” mechanism are still extremely valuable in urban areas. Large open spaces in cities – perfect for “shoot and shoot” anti-tank missions – can still be found throughout parks and rivers or on long and wide streets.

NLAWs have a minimum range of 20m, making them very useful in construction areas.

It requires a combination of ground troops hunting down the Russians with anti-tank weapons and Ukrainian tanks and other armored vehicles.

“The best anti-tank weapon in the world is another tank,” said Ben Barry, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Ukrainians will find a way to hide their tanks on the side streets, firing on the flanks of Russian columns that pass by while being shielded by soldiers on the roofs of nearby buildings.

Urban combat is gritty, grueling and confusing, but history has been in favor of the defender.

Mr. Barry calculated that the ratio of attackers and defenders needed in urban terrain could be as high as 9: 1. Many observers have questioned whether Russia has enough troops. Even the Russian commanders doubted them.

In a post on the social media app Telegram, Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin, a Russian ex-soldier and former FSB spy, said that “the ratio of manpower is already in favor of Kyiv and this advantage will only increase”.

Girkin, 51, played a key role in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent war in the Donbas region.

He said Russia’s initial plans now look “over-optimistic” and that without “partial mobilization, the war won’t be won even for a few more years”.

A Russian strategy of encirclement and bombardment means that ground troops will not need to have special abilities, Mr. Barry said.

“They just need to have enough capacity to defend artillery and rocket launchers.”

Saturday night reports of heavy fire on the outskirts of Kyiv may indicate Ukraine is working to repel Russian forces trying to encircle the city. If Russia decides to stay outside of the built-up areas and shell Kyiv, “the Ukrainian military’s excellence in protecting urban areas would be a no-brainer,” Barry said.

Not being able to go into direct combat but being subjected to sieges and aerial bombardment would be a “worst-case scenario” for Ukraine, he said.