Russia’s economy will be “dead in winter”; Putin’s mobilization to take ‘catastrophic risks’: economist

Russia’s economy could collapse by winter, according to an economist, after President Vladimir Putin called for the partial mobilization of at least 300,000 reservists.

Vladislav Inozemtsev, the director of the Moscow-based think tanks Center for Research on Post-Industrial Studies, commented in a column published for Russian publication The Insider on Sunday.

“As I wrote in early March, ‘Russia’s economy will be dead by winter,’ and now it feels like I was right…” Inozemtsev wrote. “The mobilization announced on September 21 was a milestone that truly divided Russian history into ‘before’ and ‘after’ – an event that ushered in the final countdown to Putin’s era,” he continued, adding: “These ‘ Russian’ mobilization harbors truly catastrophic risks for the national economy.”

The economist added that Russia’s GDP is likely to fall by up to 5% in October alone. He previously forecast a 4-5% contraction in Russia’s GDP for the full year.

“While Russia’s GDP was expected to collapse by 4-5% before the mobilization, today even my spring forecast of a 10% collapse looks overly optimistic,” Inozemtsev said, adding that the Moscow stock market is also expected to fall below 1,500 points ahead of 2023 could .

On Monday, Russian shares fell 6.9% by early afternoon after falling 7.4% at the start of the session. Stocks are now at their lowest since Feb. 24, the day Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, CNBC reported.

Russian markets have declined since Putin announced a partial mobilization on September 21st. Since the order, a gunman opened fire on a draft office in Siberia’s Irkutsk region, seriously injuring a recruiting officer.

In another incident, a man who has not been identified set himself on fire at a bus stop in Ryazan. During the incident, the man shouted that he did not want to fight in Ukraine. According to Reuters, he has since been taken away in an ambulance.

More than 100 people were arrested in Makhachkala on Monday when they protested against Putin’s order. More than 2,000 protesters have been arrested in mass protests since last week, with over 700 arrested on Saturday alone, BBC News reports.

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