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Scottish independence rates and polls: Will Scotland leave the UK?

Nicola Sturgeon has promised to begin formal preparations to hold a second independence referendum by the end of next year.

The new Omicron variant has made “all but sure that Covid will be on everyone’s mind until spring”, I news The editor of the Scottish site, Chris Green. But the issue of Scottish independence “has never really faded from the front lines of north-border politics since the 2014 referendum” and is certain to “grow again next year”.

Sturgeon’s 2023 voting deadline has “set the stage for a more constitutional relationship with the UK government”, Financial Times. Boris Johnson “has confirmed” that his government will not allow “a reorganization of the 2014 referendum”, the newspaper said.

But the turmoil in Westminster could be an “opportunity” for Scottish nationalists, Canariesby Peadar O’Cearneigh. “Recently Tory scandal from partygate for PPE” has given “even greater impetus” to those calling for an end to the Anglo-Scotland union.

“The simple act of removing Johnson will not bring independence to Scotland,” O’Cearneigh continued. In fact, the SNP’s longest serving congressman Pete Wishart told nation: “I don’t think it will make the slightest difference.” Johnson may be “the tangible aspect of our war for independence but he is not the reason for it.”

The SNP is currently at a “stalemate,” said Rory Scothorne at New Chinese. The party “must continue to push for independence as a solution to Scotland’s problems” in order to retain a majority of its electorate while opposition parties “remain struggling with unity voters”. . The political space between the two sides has become “a wasteland” but “more and more lost souls are trying to make compromises sprout in the desolation”.

“Broadly speaking,” this “infant alliance” agrees on several points, Scothorne continued. They aspire to “break the deadlock” of the “constitutional binary system,” and give voters more than one unwavering vote in or out.

The motives behind advocating for a “third option” are “various,” but they share “a desire to tap into more optimistic bridge-building pragmatism that characterizes people’s lives.” Scotland before we started directly electing our national representative in 1999,” Scothorne said.

So how does public opinion compare?

What are the Scots saying?

For six months in 2020, opinion polls have consistently shown strong support for secession, with one vote in favor as high as 58%. But in early 2021, the situation began to change and there was a general decline in support. When it existed, the country remained divided.

In December, a poll conducted by Idea for The Mail on Sunday showed that 1,300 or so participants were divided over whether they would vote for Scotland to become an independent nation in a second referendum. About 12% said they did not know or would not vote, while 44% said they would vote yes and 44% said they would vote no.

The same number said they thought independence would be difficult to achieve in the next five years, while slightly less – 41% – said they thought it would.

If there is a consistency between different opinion polls, they are still difficult to predict. In November of last year, Ipsos Mori announced the voting intention of more than 1,000 Scots, with 55% of whom said they would vote nationalist with 45% opposed. Just a week before that, a YouGov The poll showed the opposite view, with 40% on the “yes” side and 46% on “no”.

House bets

The public isn’t the only ones divided over whether Scotland will vote for independence at a second referendum. Online gambling company Betfair currently offers 5/6 on stay, and similar odds on break.

Legal considerations

Follow Scotland Act 1998, acts related to “reserved matters” such as the union of England and Scotland are outside the “legislative jurisdiction” of the latter. ONE House of Representatives briefing published last year stated that while both governments agree that Scotland “cannot unilaterally end the union” and achieve independence, political and academic views remain divided over whether whether the Scottish parliament can legislate itself for a referendum.

Johnson has previously said he will not allow a second independence referendum, which, if he maintains the position, could force Sturgeon to take her case to the Supreme Court.

“For this to end up in court … would mean a Conservative government that has refused to respect the democratic wishes of the Scottish people and the outcome of a democratic election,” Sturgeon said. The Andrew Marr Program in May 2021. “It would be absurd and completely outrageous if it ever got to that point.”

On the same programme, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said that the UK government would not take the Scottish government to court on the matter, explaining “the priority at the moment is not court cases”. It’s not independent law, it’s post-pandemic recovery.”

In an interview with Mail on Sunday Later that year, Gove explained that under “appropriate circumstances”, Westminster would not prevent the Scottish public from voting on Question about independence, but argues that in his opinion now is not the right time to tackle the problem.

“The principle is that Scots, under the right circumstances, can ask that question again,” he told the paper. “I just don’t think it’s right, and the public doesn’t think it’s right, to ask that question at the moment. If it is the clear case that there is a will to be negotiated in favor of a referendum, then a referendum will occur. “

“It is not clear” what would convince the UK government that another vote was the “fixed will” of the Scots, Guardians speak.

Next step

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her allies have argued that contrary to recent polls, support for a second referendum is only growing, with the vote now in “a matter of when – not if”.

Despite the steadfast position of the SNP leadership that a referendum should take place, AudienceFraser Nelson’s editor called IndyRef2 “the great Sturgeon scam”.

With the SNP winning fewer votes than “they did ten years ago under Alex Salmond” and support for independence lower than in 2014, “she knew she was going to lose,” Nelson said. , pointed to Quebec as an example of how one second of referendum failure can be the end of a secessionist movement.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/scotland Scottish independence rates and polls: Will Scotland leave the UK?

Fry Electronics Team

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