Standing at a crossroads in fixing climate change

Between 1990 and 2019 there was a 54 percent increase in emissions.

Rather hopefully, the report focuses on what can be done about it. And more importantly, it has been signed by the governments of the world. We simply have to stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The goal of the so-called Paris Agreement signed by 193 countries is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial temperature level.

To avoid temperature rise, the world must reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050-55. For other greenhouse gases such as methane, the date is further back. The report puts it on the line, saying: “We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can ensure a future worth living in.”

For this report and the previous ones, a lot of scientific research has been done to support the recommendations. The way things are going, we are on track for a 3 degree Celsius increase in average global temperature. Half of the world’s population is vulnerable to the consequences of this increase. Extreme weather events, floods and droughts will become more frequent. This will lead to crop failures, mass migration and economic pressures, which in turn will likely lead to political instability.

But the report makes it clear that these things can be avoided if recommended mitigation measures are taken. The world must reach peak emissions by 2025. It’s a bit like we have to stop putting glass panels in the greenhouse and then take it down again. The so-called greenhouse gases such as CO2 bind heat and lead to global warming, just like the panes of glass in a greenhouse. This cannot happen overnight – hence the acceptance that a peak must be reached followed by a decline.

The report contains some important recommendations. China is particularly important. It is responsible for a whopping third of annual emissions. It can therefore have the greatest impact on a single nation, and the EU, US and UK are putting pressure on China to peak in emissions over the next few years and then decline. Promisingly, emissions outside China fell by 570 million tons between 2019 and 2021 – but China increased its emissions by 750 million tons, according to the International Energy Agency. The average Chinese citizen emits more CO2 than the average EU citizen, but much less than the average American citizen. Basically, every country has to get better – especially China given its population.

The next important goal is carbon capture. Countries need to do more to remove carbon from the air. This can be done naturally, for example by planting more trees that absorb CO2, or by using artificial devices that can extract CO2 from the air. Carbon capture is important because some industries, such as agriculture and aviation, will continue to use fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. However, the artificial methods are not yet efficient enough and the technology behind them needs to be radically improved, which will not happen anytime soon. The report makes it clear that carbon capture alone will not save us.

The report also makes clear that governments have a key role to play in helping their citizens reduce consumption. This is happening in many countries, including Ireland, and includes things like insulating homes, reducing commuting by encouraging teleworking, and reducing reliance on cars.

The report also emphasizes that the key answer to the world’s energy needs is to electrify everything from heating our homes to transportation, and power generation with renewable energy and storage. The increasing use of renewable energy gives us great hope. The report says that between 2010 and 2019, the cost of solar power fell by a whopping 85 percent, wind power by 55 percent, and lithium-ion batteries (which are a great way to store energy) by 85 percent. And imagine this: when it comes to solar energy, the amount of energy that hits the earth from the sun in a single hour is more than the entire world uses in a year. And it’s becoming increasingly likely to capture a significant chunk of it. Capturing the power of the wind is also crucial.

In Ireland, the share of renewable energy was 13.5 per cent overall in 2020, falling short of the 16 per cent target set in the Renewable Energy Drive. However, we are going in the right direction and the current government program has set a target of generating 70 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

What does all this say about the future of fossil fuels? This means that €4 trillion in coal, gas and oil infrastructure will become obsolete worldwide by 2050. As for fossil fuels, the war in Ukraine has led Europe to explore independence from Russia for oil and gas. Buying fossil fuels from Russia funds the Russian military. If Europe were to switch to other sources of fossil fuels, it would mean investing in new infrastructure that will have to be written off over the next few years. More renewables is therefore the ultimate answer.

There have been reasons other than climate change to stop using fossil fuels.

Even before the war in Ukraine, it was clear that gas prices would rise sharply. The burning of fossil fuels causes environmental pollution that is harmful to health, especially in the area of ​​respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. For these reasons too, we increasingly have to say goodbye to fossil fuels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows us the way forward. Citizens can now hold governments accountable to stick with the plan. There are enormous complexities, but we also hope that through our ingenuity and collective commitment, we can ensure that the earth is a safe place for our children and grandchildren, at least in terms of climate.

Luke O’Neill is Professor of Biochemistry in the Department of Biochemistry and Immunology at Trinity College Dublin