France is preparing for a presidential election in April and President Emmanuel Macron is in the midst of an intense campaign to serve a second five-year term. His government has imposed minimal pandemic restrictions and instead encouraged people to get vaccinated in an effort to keep the country’s economy open.
But economists warn against excessive exaggeration, warning of the challenges posed by the pandemic’s lingering effects.
“The shock in France in 2020 is stronger than the European average, and the French economic recovery in 2021 is much more dynamic than the average recovery in Europe,” said Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, writes in a study. “However, the global imbalances caused by the pandemic, especially in terms of prices, are now being felt, and overcoming their effects will be a complex and important challenge for economic growth. recovery in the coming quarters.”
The latest increase in the Omicron variant in Germany is an example of that imbalance as the government enacts more restrictions during the year-end shopping season. Shoppers must show proof of vaccination, and the markets are closed for the holidays. These measures have dampened consumer spending, contributing to a 0.7 percent decline in the final quarter of 2021, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Office.
Overall, the German economy will grow 2.8% in 2021, slightly above the 2.7% officials expected. But it remains hampered by persistent bottlenecks in the supply chain, especially in the country’s auto industry, where domestic production last year fell 12 percent from 2019, to 3.1 million. car.
Some economists predict Germany will struggle in the first quarter of 2022. Others predict the potential for soft growth, as long as the supply chain is easy enough to allow manufacturers to start filling up. their backlog of orders.
This week, the German government cut its annual growth forecast to 3.6%, from 4.1% released at the end of October. Robert Habeck, the new Economy Minister, warned that “afterwards” The effects of the coronavirus pandemic are still being felt and many companies are struggling with that.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/business/france-germany-economy.html The French economy beat expectations, while Germany failed.