New MRP data shows 92 Conservative MPs – including Prime Minister Boris Johnson – would lose their seat in tomorrow’s general election as pressure mounts on Rishi Sunak to intervene
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The Tories majority would be wiped out in tomorrow’s general election, a new poll shows, as Britain’s looming cost-of-living crisis threatens to engulf Boris Johnson’s government.
A new MRP survey, conducted by Survation for campaign group 38 Degrees, found 92 Conservative MPs would be voted out and Labor would be the strongest party in a parliament, with an estimated 293 seats to Tories’ 273.
The data, which brings together a new UK survey and separate forecast analysis, predicts Prime Minister Boris Johnson would lose his Uxbridge seat to Keir Starmer’s party by a nine-point margin (50% versus 41%).
The analysis also puts Labor ahead of the Conservatives by two points (39% to 37%) among voters in the 50-64 age group – who voted heavily for Mr Johnson in 2019.
It comes just hours before Rishi Sunak’s spring statement as the Chancellor faces mounting calls to intervene as households brace for rising inflation, shrinking wage packages and soaring energy bills.
The study also underscored the magnitude of the cost of living crisis, with three in four (74%) respondents saying their energy bills are higher and 55% saying they are paying more for transport than they did last year.
Four in five (79%) reported paying for more expensive groceries and 71% reported increased fuel costs.
The study also revealed a deep sense of unease among Red Wall voters aged 50 and over, with those living in the North East, North West and Wales reporting the worst impact of the energy crisis.
Almost a quarter of respondents (20%) also said they had been affected by cuts in Universal Credit.
Ellie Gellard, director of strategy at 38 Degrees, urged the Treasury to act to help struggling Britons.
She said: “The country is crying out for help in this catastrophic cost-of-living crisis.
“People are grappling with crippling energy bills at home – and struggling with higher transport costs and shocking fuel prices at the pump to get out of the country.
“The message from Brits across the country could not be clearer – we need help. And we need them now.
“If this image of families in struggle is not enough, Rishi Sunak can now see the political consequences of not acting on Wednesday.”
It comes after money-saving expert Martin Lewis said he was “running out of tools” to help people and urged the government to step in.
He said on Sunday: “I’ve been a money saving expert since 2000. I went through the financial crash, I went through Covid, which was mitigated by some of the Chancellor’s actions.
“That’s the worst – where we are right now, that’s the worst.
“When I read messages from people saying that the prioritization of money used to be, ‘Do I go to the hairdresser or do I go to the pub and have takeout?’
“Now it’s about ‘feeding my kids over feeding myself.’ This is simply not acceptable in our society and there is absolute panic – and it has not yet started.”
Survation and Professor Chris Hanretty’s MRP analysis correctly predicted the outcome of the 2017 general election.
Prof Hanretty of the University of London said: “The cost of living crisis is a real headache for the Conservative Party because it is incredibly broad. We can think about a triple strike.
“First, there are increases in fuel costs that tend to land more with car owners, who tend to be more affluent and who are less likely to live in big cities where there are labor shortages.
“Second, cuts in state support are more of a concern for working-class voters, to whom conservatives might turn on cultural issues.
“Third, energy cost increases are so great that they pose a problem for almost everyone. You can’t have a big increase in the cost of living for 80 percent of the population and not expect the ruling party to pay a price for it.”
Survation and 38 Degrees conducted two separate surveys. One was with 2,034 Britons and was based on Tory allegations and the cost of living crisis, with fieldwork conducted between March 4th and 7th
The second was the MRP analysis (multilevel regression and post-stratification). Voting intent data was entered into the MRP model and field studies conducted across three survey waves conducted between November 11, 2021 and March 7, 2022 were used. The total sample size was 8,002.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-set-lose-majority-over-26531919 Tories set to lose majority over cost of living crisis as Brits 'cry for help'