Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should seek peace, but not at the expense of his people’s bravery

What was intended as a temporary ceasefire line between Russian-backed Communists in the north and American-backed forces in the south still stands today, 70 years later, as the perpetually unstable international border between North and South Korea. Such divisions often bring ethnic cleansing, refugees and endless misery.

The territory already occupied by the Russians in the south and east of the country would be re-established as a puppet regime, presumably as the People’s Republic of Ukraine. Russia is unable to conquer the whole country and Ukraine alone, despite some successful Ukrainian counterattacks, is not strong enough to push the Russians back to the border and retake Crimea.

So the current military line of control would solidify into a line of contact and then into a de facto established international border, as in Korea, as between the two halves of Cyprus, and as across Kashmir, between India and Pakistan.

Budanov believes that the Ukrainian breakaway state would eventually become unprofitable and, as a result, a “total Ukrainian guerrilla safari” would get under way. However, that would hardly be good for the people and would further destabilize Ukraine. Therefore Volodymyr Zelenskyj, the President of Ukraine, must be wary of any Russian offer of a ceasefire and talks based on acceptance of Russian dominance (like Winston Churchill was in 1940 when Hitler put out feelers).

Zelensky rightly seeks peace, but with honor. He offers “neutrality”, which probably does not rule out EU membership, the application in Brussels has already been submitted. He is even willing to talk about territories, but subject to a national referendum.

These are bold concessions that no free, independent nation must accept through invasion and occupation. But whatever is agreed must be acceptable to the people – before a ceasefire is announced. Zelensky shouldn’t give up while he’s winning.

Russians have a habit of hanging around when they’ve promised to leave, as anyone in Eastern Europe will attest. As with so much in this conflict, there is a playbook. Look at how the 2008 war in Georgia ended – a lesson Boris Johnson said the West failed to learn. There, continued Russian occupation of the territory after the ceasefire has turned into a de facto annexation, and the peace deal brokered by former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been ignored when it pleases Putin.

Something similar would happen now if Emmanuel Macron or Recep Tayyip Erdogan used their good offices to stop the fighting and it would merely reward the attacker. Putin would not get all he wanted from his use of force, but he would get enough to allow his propagandists to make it look like a victory. This is the false precedent the West should accept.

Zelensky, like his spy chief Budanov, is smart enough and smart enough to evade any clumsy Russian trap. As Democrats, they know they should not and cannot strike a deal with Russia without the approval of parliament and the people – and Ukrainians will not accept a humiliating unequal treaty that makes another invasion more likely. Your bravery would be in vain.

Putin’s biggest mistake was underestimating the Ukrainians and believing his own propaganda that they would like to be reunited with Russia.

He ignored one of the lessons of wars like America’s in Vietnam and Russia’s own unfortunate time in Afghanistan, where tremendous benefits of firepower on paper were useless on the ground. They call it “asymmetric warfare”, in which the militarily weaker side has superior tactics and morale.

Because of this, Russia cannot win and wants to split up Ukraine and hoard what it has occupied.

Putin and his circle underestimated the power of nationalism to motivate people to fight and die for their beliefs and values. The more the Russians try to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people, the more determined they will resist. That is why Russia cannot win this war, which is why it wants to use its current achievements to get behind a ceasefire line insteadd why Zelensky shouldn’t give up while he’s ahead. Ukrainians want their country back. (© Independent News Service)