Weather-related crop rally takes a breather with a view to Ukraine

Crops took a breather after weather-related gains as traders evaluate forecasts for US and European growing regions and assess the prospects for grain-laden ships leaving Ukraine’s Black Sea ports after the export deal.

Heat, corn and soybeans slid after rising over 5% over the past few days. As heat and drought wilted European corn fields during the peak flowering season, the European Union’s crop monitoring unit has reduced its yield estimate by 8%. US harvest rates also fell short of analysts’ expectations last week.

Forecasters are at odds over “weather models projecting more heat and less rain in the US Midwest beginning later this week,” said Tobin Gorey, agricultural strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. They used to be suspicious of the projections, but now they seem to think they’re more plausible, he said.

A series of visits to farms across North Dakota this week will give an idea of ​​just how much wheat the US can supply. Planting in the northern plains has been slowed this year by downpours and flooding. The first signs of the tour are mostly positive. A preliminary estimate for yields in North Dakota, the state with the best spring wheat production, is up almost 20 bushels from the same time a year ago.

In Ukraine, after the export deal was signed, all eyes are on removing a major obstacle: up to 100 ships carrying grain and agricultural products were stuck in Ukrainian ports when the Russian invasion began, and it would be an important step to put them to sea revival of maritime trade. Still, freight for new sales is difficult to pin down, with risks for insurers and shippers.

Bloomberg. Weather-related crop rally takes a breather with a view to Ukraine

Fry Electronics Team

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