Wheat falls for a fifth week as outlook for Black Sea shipments improves

The extension last month of a deal between Russia and Ukraine allowing safe passage of Black Sea exports has helped cool recent price gains and potentially ease a scourge of global food inflation. A record wheat harvest in Australia is also causing prices to fall.

Despite earlier fears that flooding in parts of Australia would affect grain quality, reports suggest it’s not “the nightmare it looked like last month,” said Frontier Futures broker Joe Nussmeier.

Further pressure on wheat prices is a forecast for beneficial rains in major U.S. producing regions like Kansas, said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at commodities brokerage Allendale Inc. The most active wheat contract in Chicago closed 1.6% lower at $7.3425 a bushel on Friday. Corn gained slightly while soybeans declined.

Among other agricultural products, soybean meal futures rose 11% this week, the biggest weekly gain since October 2014. Meanwhile, soybean oil fell for the second straight week, falling 7.6%.

The price swings mark a reversal of fate for the raw materials, which are derived from crushing whole soybeans. Soybean oil, a key ingredient in the production of renewable diesel, has fallen after the Biden administration proposed new biofuel blending rules last week that fell short of industry expectations.

Regulatory data on Friday mirrored the shift, with money managers ramping up bullish bets on soy flour and trimming bets on soy oil. There was also a precipitous drop in corn web longs to their lowest level in more than two years.

“Meal continues to defy gravity, putting pressure on traders who have been stubbornly long oil and short meals,” said Charlie Sernatinger, global head of grain futures at EDF Man Capital Markets Inc. in Chicago.

Bloomberg.