Ask me about the best actress race in an hour, and I might have a completely different lineup for you. I feel pretty optimistic with Kidman, Colman, and Gaga, but there are so many possible candidates vying for those last two spots that I keep tearing up my projections and starting over.
Hudson and Jessica Chastain (“Tammy Faye’s Eyes”) were both nominated by SAG, but their biopics don’t show much strength. Alana Haim (“Licorice Pizza”) and Rachel Zegler (“West Side Story”) are leading the way in higher-rated films, but a winter marred by the coronavirus hasn’t given Oscar voters much time. face both films. And if I had my way, there would be two definite places for Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”) and Renate Reinsve (“World’s Worst”), but they never quite built the momentum they needed this season.
Everyone was shocked when Stewart was snubbed by SAG, but I have a hunch she’ll still make it: The 31-year-old actress will have her first nomination, and she’s worked hard, appearing in almost every roundtable interview and Q&A for “Spencer.” Among the remaining candidates, I will play it safe and predict the candidate of SAG Hudsonwho delivers her most sophisticated performance in “Respect”.
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza”
Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Jared Leto, “Gucci House”
Smit-McPheeKirsten Dunst’s portrayal of his crafty son is a hit, since at the end of “The Power of the Dog” he emerges as the film’s stealthy protagonist. Leto wears a prosthetic perform the kind of high-voltage transformation in “House of Gucci” that voters love, even as critics tend to mock. And Kotsur’s reaction shots power the emotional third act of “CODA”: His daughter is running away, but now he understands her better than ever.
Some people think Cooper’s two-scene performance in “Licorice Pizza” might be too small for Oscar recognition, but he made it to the SAG lineup and it’s an extremely flashy take from a contender regularly. Ben Affleck also received a SAG nod, but that was for “The Tender Bar,” which isn’t considered a major Oscar contender. I will disqualify Affleck for a supportive performance from the top of the best picture nominees, and in that group – that includes Jesse Plemons (“Dog Power”) as well as Hinds and Jamie Dornan (“Belfast”) – I’m casting Hinds, a veteran actor thanks to his first nomination.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/movies/oscars-nominations-predictions.html Who will be nominated for an Oscar? This is our forecast.