Analysts in both the crypto and traditional markets have noted some striking similarities between the recent downturn and that caused by a March 2020 pandemic panic.
The real question is whether it is the start of a major downturn or whether there will be a significant recovery like 2020 that has led to an extended bull run in both the crypto and stock markets.
Podcaster and author of The Pomp Letter, Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, standing on the Ledger’s permabull page, tweeted on May 18 that since March 1, 2020, when a bitcoin was about $8,545, “bitcoin has fallen by 340 % has increased”.
Bitcoin is up 340% since March 1, 2020.
With central banks around the world devaluing their currencies at historic rates, there is only one asset that stands out from the crowd.#Bitcoin is the savings technology that protects billions of people from undisciplined monetary policy.
— Pomp (@APompliano) May 17, 2022
Among those hoping for a turnaround is investment firm Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, who believes Bitcoin markets have drawn a pattern that shares characteristics with the March 2020 crash.
In his May 13 episode of Raoul Pal Adventures in Crypto, Pal explained that with price action lower over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) may have shot “straight down” to the bottom of the current wedge formation and is now range-bound located, which will eventually lead to a further increase in price. He said,
“That was exactly the pattern we had in March 2020.”
On March 12, 2020, investors panic-sold many assets, including Bitcoin, fearing how the COVID-19 pandemic and global lockdowns would affect the market. On the day, Bitcoin fell 45% from $7,935 to $5,142, according to CoinGecko.
The current decline in traditional markets has resulted in a $7.6 trillion loss in market cap by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, unadjusted for inflation, more than the dot-com bubble and sell-offs of March 2020.
The numbers are obviously not adjusted for inflation, but still stunning to look at in this context. pic.twitter.com/aHem93mhpo
— Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan) May 17, 2022
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 8 on May 17, the lowest since March 2020.
#crypto The fear and greed index is 8 out of 100.
The lowest number since the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. pic.twitter.com/jKVTcjrXV1
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 17, 2022
The 50-day moving average (MA) of financials, real estate and technology investments are close to the overwhelmingly oversold levels of just over two years ago. Accordingly, these levels were 0, 0, and 1 in March 2020, compared to 2, 3, and 4 in May so far, based on data from Fidelity Investments. In a May 18th tweetFidelity’s own Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, called March 2020 “one of the most oversold setups in the history of the market.”
The Future Fund’s managing partner, Gary Black, noted on May 17 that Tesla (TSLA) is trading at a discount of 20%, the largest discount to analysts’ price target since March 2020. He added: ” Over the next 12 months, TSLA increased by $660%.”
The last time $TSLA was trading at such a wide discount (25%) to the average Street PT ($984) in March 2020, at the height of the Covid crisis. In the next 12 months, $TSLA increased by 660%. Source: pic.twitter.com/z2AHe5zkVi
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) May 16, 2022
The S&P 500 index also shows similarities as it hit a 52-week low of 3,930 on May 12, only to fall back to 4,088 by the close on May 17. The index had last done so in March 2020.
The S&P 500 is up just 2% on two of the last three days after hitting a 52-week low.
The last time this happened?
March 2009 and March 2020.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 17, 2022
Before traders get too excited, market conditions are very different now, with rising inflation and rising interest rates. Back then, governments responded with unprecedented aid packages to support prices. Reuters reported on May 14 that the market’s strong rebound in 2020 was fueled by what it called “unprecedented Fed stimulus.”
Analyst and author of the Rekt Capital newsletter, Rekt Capital tweeted on May 17 that BTC is “entering a period of outsized opportunity,” based on Log Channel analysis that it says is similar to what happened in March 2020. However, he’s not sure if we’ve bottomed out yet.
Related: Fear & Greed Index Hits Lowest Since March 2020 Despite Bitcoin Price Hitting $30.5K
Last time #BTC Lost the Log Channel was in March 2020
That’s if $BTC also fell below the blue 200 SMA
Log Channel clearly shows that BTC is entering a period of outsized opportunities
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 16, 2022
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.1% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $30,545.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/analysts-note-parallels-with-march-2020-will-this-time-be-different Will it be different this time?