David Zweig is a professor emeritus at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
If Xi Jinping is thinking of making a move towards Taiwan, after Russia invades Ukraine, he might think again. For the Chinese President, the war in Europe is unfolding as a cautionary tale. The brutal use of military force in the 21st century, he will not be able to fail to notice, comes with considerable risk.
Ukrainians have proven that people fight hard when their backs are against a wall, and the same is likely to be true of Taiwanese, who value their democracy and independence from their neighbour. bigger – if not more – than Ukrainians. Taiwan’s military may be properly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces and government’s reluctance to invest in its defense, but a Taiwanese people united by a common threat could Combat was much more difficult than anticipated.
True, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will have more momentum than Russian forces – unifying the country is a mantra buried deep in its core – but an invasion pours out. Walking over 100 miles of sea would also be much more difficult to accomplish than Russia’s current mainland invasion. And while the United States rejects a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, given the country’s risk of nuclear confrontation, American aircraft flying from an American aircraft carrier off the east coast of Taiwan could easily create created a kind of “no-fly zone” between Fujian and Taiwan.
The Russian invasion also demonstrated how humble leaders can take this opportunity and rally a strongly supported society to resist an invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emerged as a Heroes are not capable. Why expect less from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who tough stance against China Has earned her strong praise? One can easily imagine the support she will gain around the world in the face of the male PLA and the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.
US President Joe Biden will also have little difficulty mobilizing his allies and partners to assist the US in defending Taiwan, resulting in a very different move from the one currently taking place in Eastern Europe. These would include the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia and perhaps India – the US partner in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
Nor will Western solidarity in the Ukraine crisis so far be wasted on Xi. The European Union belongs to China major trading partner. If you follow this country, like the US and Japan, it is very dangerous for a leader who knows he must raise the standard of living at home. China’s deep integration into the global economy and Beijing’s leverage $1.068 billion in Treasuries would make Western sanctions more difficult to implement, but these cannot be ruled out, before or after, an invasion of Taiwan.
Given Putin’s devastation in Ukraine, an attack on Taiwan now risks occurring with Moscow’s coordination. Such an attack would quickly be seen as an attempt by the authoritarian Sino-Russian alliance to weaken democratic forces, pulling back years of Beijing’s soft power efforts, such as the founding of China. The Belt and Road Initiative – China’s massive global transport and infrastructure project.
Moreover, at the 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China later this year, Mr. Xi will ask the party leadership to give him supreme control for at least another five years. For now, his willingness to marry China to Putin by declaring Sino-Russian relations as “friendship without limits” may lead some to question his leadership ability. An all-out invasion of Taiwan would further highlight the risks of empowering an incompetent dictator.
The situation is unlikely to get any better for Mr. Xi after the war, as the US government, absorbing lessons from Ukraine, is likely to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses, reinforcing its commitment to defend its foundations. democracy and challenge the expansion of “authoritarian bullies”.
But if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a warning to Mr. Xi, whether he heeds it or not remains to be seen. However, if he chooses to imitate his Russian counterpart’s efforts to rebuild the empire through his own war of reunification against Taiwan, he may find that even the Absolute dictators are also limited in what they can achieve.
https://www.politico.eu/article/taiwan-the-next-ukraine/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication Will Taiwan be the next Ukraine? - POLITICO