Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was thwarted by logistical failures and the poor morale of conscripts. But experts have warned that the Russian president may be planning to enter a dangerous new phase.
Dr Chris Tuck, a conflict and security expert from King’s College London, said as Russian troops were besieging major Ukrainian cities. Sky News that Putin may be moving toward an “anaconda plan” in which major centers of protest are blocked off.
“You keep prolonging the conflict, you surround more cities where you can, you put pressure on those cities, you try as hard as you can,” Tuck said. “Basically you’re trying to prove to the Ukrainians that persevering in the war will get them a worse end and it’s better to settle it sooner rather than later.”
Speaking to Sky News, Dr Tuck said he agreed with the broad view that the conflict Russia was involved in “wasn’t the one they expected”. The invasion was going “badly,” he continued, as it was supposed to “a very quick and decisive operation“.
He added: “They are not set up in terms of logistics, command and control, arrangements for joint warfare or the scale of combat they have to engage in. “Contrary to what Putin is arguing – he says it’s all going to plan – that’s clearly not the case.”
According to retired lieutenant-general Ben Hodges, the invasion quickly became a “logistic nightmare” for Russia. Write in walkie talkiehe said that the Kremlin’s strategy was “based on flawed assumptions” and there was “potential for further deterioration”.
“Russia’s logistical capabilities can only be ready for a flash operation,” he continued, predicting that Kyiv would be captured within days, not weeks or months.
“That, of course, didn’t happen – and the more that false assumption is refuted, the slower the whole operation will become,” he added.
According to Kyiv IndependentRussia has lost about 12,000 troops since Putin ordered an invasion. The fierce resistance of the Ukrainians also claimed 49 aircraft, 317 tanks, 81 helicopters, 120 artillery systems and 60 fuel tanks.
The Russian military is also concerned that the coming “Arctic wind” “could make the invasion more difficult by the Russians, especially those trapped in a 40-mile column of dead traffic to the east.” north of the Ukrainian capital”, Time reported.
A Ukrainian military source told the newspaper that temperatures dropping to minus 10 degrees Celsius overnight around Kyiv would “affect those in the convoy staying for a long time; it means that the Russian army on the side of the road will suffer”.
Major Kevin Price, who served in the British Army for two decades, said the cold “will weaken Russian forces”, adding: “It will improve cross-country mobility because there will be less mud but the Russians are not ready for the conditions in the Arctic. . ”
An urban attack like one thing will be required to overthrow Kyiv He told the newspaper it would be “unbelievably hard” without the right clothes. “Imagine sitting in a 40-ton iron freezer all night.”
While many of the problems facing Russia’s invasion are the result of poor military planning, Dr Tusk told Sky News that some of the problems stem directly from the Russian President.
“Usually tends to be in the West consider Putin an excellent strategist – smart, intuitive and very good at assessing the dynamics of crises and political situations,” he said. But “his views on the dynamics of the Ukraine crisis are completely fake” and “the campaign went wrong because Putin thinks that the Ukrainian people can easily be narrowed down by a show of force.” “.
With this in mind, the Russian president will think about your options to end hostilities. And this is where Tusk told the broadcaster that an “anaconda plan” might emerge.
Military strategy dating back to the American Civil War, when Confederate Commander-in-Chief Winfield Scott proposed a blockade of Confederate ports to starve Confederate imports and prevent lucrative cotton exports from being used. to finance the war.
The plan is likened to an anaconda coiling around its prey and squeezing, hence the name.
A similar strategy was deployed by Bosnian Serb forces against the city of Sarajevo . during the conflict in the 1990s. It became the longest siege of the capital in modern warfare, lasting nearly four years and claiming the lives of 5,434 civilians.
This is the “route” [Putin is] at this point, Dr Tusk told Sky News, setting the scene for “this conflict will continue for a considerable amount of time”.
Will it work?
The mayor of Mariupol, a strategically important port town in the southeast of Ukraine, has warned that the Russian military has sealed off the area after “cutting off electricity, food, water, heating and transportation systems” load in winter”, France 24 reported.
The broadcaster added that the siege led to “a comparison with the Nazi blockade of Leningrad during the Second World War”, the broadcaster added, with Mayor Vadim Boychenko stating: “We are seek solutions to humanitarian problems and all possible ways to get Mariupol out of the blockade.”
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has also warned that the Russian military plans to “besiege the capital to blockade the capital” in an interview with the television station. Current time.
“At this point, our boys are responding to them appropriately. Even groups approaching the outskirts of Kyiv are being pushed back several kilometers,” he said, adding that “we will do everything we can” to break any blockade.
Ukraine’s response to Russia’s aggression has been strong across the country, with Video goes viral on social media civilians do their best to support the efforts of the army and volunteer self-defense forces.
According to Dr. Tusk, the use of chemicals or nuclear weapons “not on the tag” and a negotiated peace deal is unlikely “because Putin has tied himself too much, politically, to the success of this operation”.
Anything less than a win would be seen as “a major blow to his credibility”, he added. The “anaconda plan” is probably here to stay.
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/russia/956020/will-vladimir-putin-anaconda-plan-break-ukraine-resistance Will Vladimir Putin’s ‘anaconda plan’ break Ukraine’s resistance?